PB.C entrants beat the betting markets and the Guardian

PB.C entrants beat the betting markets and the Guardian

    How did the predictors do?

In our Lib Dem prediction competition, pregethwr has narrowly won from bigbucksbetty to take the coveted PB.C Lib Dem leadership Trophy.jpgcompetition trophy for 2006. The top five places went to:-

1. pregethwr (post 86) 1.75 points
2. bigbucksbetty (134) 1.93
3. Vino (114) 2.17
4. Dan (170) 2.57
5. Baskerville (53) 2.67

The winning entry was Campbell to be the leader getting 44.9% of the first preferences and 56.3% of the votes after the Hughes elimination. Pregethwr was just 0.19% out on the first round but undershot by 1.56%

The margin of victory was very narrow over the runner up, bigbucksbetty who got the final total with within just 0.24% but who was 1.69% out on the first round

The entrant who was closest to the final Campbell figure was Jon Gale who had it within 0.04% but ended up in tenth position because of his first round prediction.

It is perhaps worth noting that 59% of respondents overall predicted that Ming Campbell would win 36% backing Chris Huhne and Simon Hughes getting just 5%.

    Given that for almost the entire entry period of the competition that Huhne was the odds-on betting favourite this says a lot about the predictive powers of the PB.C community. Well done.

Our previous post contrasted the final results with the YouGov poll of nearly a month ago. Clearly a lot has happened in that period and YouGov would surely like to have been judged on a more recent poll but one was not commissioned.

We failed to mention the big loser – the Guardian survey taken at last week’s London hustings meeting. This got a lot of coverage five days before the ballot closed after they spoke to 422 people who were there. They found Huhne had 152 first preferences (36%). Ming 124 (29%) and Hughes 87 (21%). This experience is worth remembering for the future.

For a full results table email Paul Maggs who did a great job devising and managing the competition.

Mike Smithson

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