Our first “guest” contribution by Sean Fear Local by-elections might be thought to be of interest only to political trainspotters. However, they matter because they have, historically, been a very good indicator of the standing of the three parties in local contests. The share of the vote won by each of the three main parties in local elections each May will always be much closer to the vote share won in the preceding few months’ by elections than to the…
Are the Tories onto something by branding Brown as “unpleasant”? I very much doubt if the following statement will receive universal acclaim on PB.C – but with the single exception of three-times election winner Tony Blair I rate the Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, as the top political strategist in British politics today. He’s very much the brains behind the Cameron team and there can be little doubt that his attack this week on “Brown’s unpleasantness” was pre-meditated and designed to…
With Bush’s ratings plummeting will the Republicans retain control? Probably the most important elections anywhere in the world during 2006 will be the US mid-terms on November 7th when the Republicans will be defending their control of both the House and the Senate. The numbers look straightforward: to win the Senate Democrats have to win six seats, which given the strength of Republican incumbents looks almost out of the question – although the collapse in confidence in recent polls on…
Michael Meacher blasts the Stephen Byers plan A revolutionary new plan to change the way in which the Labour leader is elected is being proposed by the former minister, Stephen Byers. According to the veteran MP, Michael Meacher in the Guardian this morning Labour’s NEC will discuss a document this month called the Party Renewal Project which, along with other proposals, sets out a revolutionary way of choosing the leader. Instead of the current complex arrangement involving the trade unions,…
But Labour and Tories level pegging on main voting intention The March Populus Poll in the Times has the following top-line voting intention with comparisons on a month ago: CON 35%(-2): LAB 35%(-1): LD 20%(+2). So in terms of lead the Tories and Labour are back to an even position after the Tories were briefly ahead last month. In recent months Populus has been showing Labour doing better against the Tories than the other pollsters with regular monthly slots in…
Introducing PB.C Flashback At the site party in January Mike Killingworth (Innocent Abroad) suggested that the archives should be kept because they give an interesting snapshot of what people were thinking at a particular time. As a result I have taken the thread of May 5-6th last year, General Election night, and produced an edited version of the interaction on the site from 9.30 pm to 1am the following morning. It makes a great read and I’ve put it as…
Polling boost for Chancellor’s wider role The first voting intention poll on how Brown would do against Cameron for two months is out today and shows that Labour and the Tories would be level-pegging on 38% each with the Lib Dems on 13% Unlike last week’s ICM survey in the News of the World and the Sunday Times YouGov poll three weeks ago today’s poll asked a specific voting intention question taking account of the Lib Dems and other parties….
Is Blair’s holiday host set to lose his job? While all the UK focus has been on whether Tessa Jowell will survive and what impact her departure would have on the Blair premiership the affair is hardly getting any coverage in Italy itself even though the core allegation is that the Prime Minster paid a bribe to Jowell’s now estranged husband, David Mills. For the big issue in Italy is whether the Italian Prime Minister, Silvio Berlusconi will hold onto…