BBC projection puts the Tories on 40%
New thread 0430 The BBC projection of the national vote share based on yesterday puts the Tories in their best position since before the ERM crisis in 1992. The shares are: CON 40: LAB 26: LD 27 .
11 hours down, 7 to go
With four hours to go until the polls close, readers will be looking forward to following the results as they come in. The Press Association expects the first result to come in from Tamworth around 11.30pm, with the last of the night’s results from Richmond at 6am.
Turnout – how low can it go?
Unrepresentative bunch as we are here, we can get an inflated idea of the prominence elections have among the public in general. Quite a few posters here will have spent an intense month focusing on today’s local elections — but that puts us in quite a minority.
Best of luck for tomorrow
Book Value to take over PB.C for a couple of days I’m going to be away at a conference on the banks of Loch Lomond for a couple of days and Philip Grant (Book Value) will be standing in as guest editor of PB.C. Thanks for giving me a break Philip. Whatever your allegiance whatever your party can I wish all the PB.C regulars who are candidates tomorrow the very best of luck and that you get the outcome you…
General Election betting – it’s almost neck and neck
Punters flee Labour and back the Tories The above chart shows how punters on the Betfair betting exchange are rating the chances of Labour and the Tories wininng most seats at the next General Election. It is based over time on nthe implied probability based on the best betting price. The current price is evens on Labour and 1.04/1 on the Tories – so a bet on both would bring you certain returns although you might have to wait for…
Will there be a Labour Crispin Blunt tomorrow night?
Could the close of polls trigger concerted action against Blair? Just as the polls were closing at the end of local election day in May 2003 the Tory trade spokesman Crispin Blunt, resigned his front bench post in what appeared to be a planned and concerted move to bring down the then Tory leader, Ian Duncan Smith. The pundits had been predicting a very poor Tory performance in the elections and Blunt’s move appeared to be timed to coincide with…
Happy 9th Birthday – 1997 General Election Victory
Punters make Labour favourite for next time as well Nine years today ago these were the images that were being beamed to the world after Labour’s extraordinary General Election landslide. Even though the tone of headlines might be a bit different on the morning of May 2nd 2006 it is a good moment to pose the question – could Labour do it again? And if the party did win the next election, of course, that could mean a further nine…
Solving the ICM local election poll mystery?
Were the Sunday Express figures part of the latest Guardian poll? Yesterday the Sunday Express published an ICM poll which suggested that votes in the local elections on Thursday would split CON 29%, LAB 27%, LD 22%. There was little other data accompanying the report and Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report concluded “I’m reserving judgement till I see the tables on the ICM website” Given it’s been a bank holiday weekend it is not surprising that nothing has yet…