Has Lucky Tony done enough to stay a bit longer?

Has Lucky Tony done enough to stay a bit longer?

Is the Cabinet re-shuffle enough? With breathtaking timing Lucky Tony has managed to dillute the bad overnight election news with his cabinet re-shuffle. From a situation where all the focus would be on yesterday’s 3rd place on votes and nearly 300 seat losses the bulletins tonight are mostly about his changes. But will this be enough to calm his party critics and allow Lucky Tony to complete most of his third term? Like him or loathe him you have to…

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Unpopular government… unpopular councils?

Unpopular government… unpopular councils?

One feature of yesterday’s local election results was the electoral peril of controlling a council. Labour lost a string of councils whilst being able to gain Lambeth after four years of a Liberal Democrat/Conservative coalition. The Conservatives, despite an excellent night in general, lost their sizable majority in Richmond to the Lib Dems, who in turn lost their stronghold in Islington. This may not be much new. Councils have always risked making unpopular local decisions which affect them in a…

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BBC projection puts the Tories on 40%

BBC projection puts the Tories on 40%

New thread 0430 The BBC projection of the national vote share based on yesterday puts the Tories in their best position since before the ERM crisis in 1992. The shares are: CON 40: LAB 26: LD 27 .

11 hours down, 7 to go

11 hours down, 7 to go

With four hours to go until the polls close, readers will be looking forward to following the results as they come in. The Press Association expects the first result to come in from Tamworth around 11.30pm, with the last of the night’s results from Richmond at 6am.

Turnout – how low can it go?

Turnout – how low can it go?

Unrepresentative bunch as we are here, we can get an inflated idea of the prominence elections have among the public in general. Quite a few posters here will have spent an intense month focusing on today’s local elections — but that puts us in quite a minority.

Best of luck for tomorrow

Best of luck for tomorrow

Book Value to take over PB.C for a couple of days I’m going to be away at a conference on the banks of Loch Lomond for a couple of days and Philip Grant (Book Value) will be standing in as guest editor of PB.C. Thanks for giving me a break Philip. Whatever your allegiance whatever your party can I wish all the PB.C regulars who are candidates tomorrow the very best of luck and that you get the outcome you…

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General Election betting – it’s almost neck and neck

General Election betting – it’s almost neck and neck

Punters flee Labour and back the Tories The above chart shows how punters on the Betfair betting exchange are rating the chances of Labour and the Tories wininng most seats at the next General Election. It is based over time on nthe implied probability based on the best betting price. The current price is evens on Labour and 1.04/1 on the Tories – so a bet on both would bring you certain returns although you might have to wait for…

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Will there be a Labour Crispin Blunt tomorrow night?

Will there be a Labour Crispin Blunt tomorrow night?

Could the close of polls trigger concerted action against Blair? Just as the polls were closing at the end of local election day in May 2003 the Tory trade spokesman Crispin Blunt, resigned his front bench post in what appeared to be a planned and concerted move to bring down the then Tory leader, Ian Duncan Smith. The pundits had been predicting a very poor Tory performance in the elections and Blunt’s move appeared to be timed to coincide with…

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