If you want to know how the parties are doing you’ll have to wait If you had hoped to wake up this morning to read how the parties are getting on as recorded in the longest running and most authoritative polling series in British politics – then tough. The Guardian has decided to play polling striptease with its ICM July poll so although there are hints of goodies to come the paper is making us wait for the key data…
Would Brown’s first move to be to seek a fresh mandate? With John Prescott suggesting yesterday that there’ll be an announcement “very shortly” on the Labour transition there continues to be speculation that the first act of an incoming Gordon Brown government would be to ask the Queen to dissolve parliament so there could be an immediate General Election. Brown would then be able to go to the country to get his own mandate and secure a full term of…
Can you predict David Cameron’s next amazing policy initiative? There’s little doubt that “Hug a Hoodie”, like the earlier attack on WH Smith’s for selling Chocolate Oranges, have becoming defining themes for the new Tory leadership. But what’s going to be next? Clearly it has to be something that is so distant from what you would expect to hear from a Tory leader that it will, at first, appear totally shocking. Can you use your imaginiation to guess what will…
The Shape of Things to Come? It is an axiom of politics in Northern Ireland, that an increase in support for Sinn Fein stimulates an increase in support for the DUP, and vice versa. In the early Eighties, electoral success for Sinn Fein was matched by success for the DUP. In the late Eighties, support for both parties declined. Since 1997, support for both parties has surged, leading them to eclipse their more moderate rivals. I wonder now if something…
Do “budget” non-voting intention surveys tell us anything? So far we haven’t covered the ICM poll findings that were presented to Ming Campbell in a 25 minute feature on Newsnight on Wednesday evening. The most cruel figures from the new leader’s point of view was a comparison with his predecessor, Charles Kennedy. By 53-26 those surveyed preferred the old leader to the new. Comparing which of the three presumed party leaders at the next election “had the qualities needed to…
William Hill report huge interest in new market Following our call this morning for a betting market on whether leading figures will be arrested William Hill now have a market up. They opened with a price of 10/1 that the Prime Minister would be arrested in 2006 but this has been tightened after big punter interest. I think that this is worth a punt. Mike Smithson
Dave down, Ming up in YouGov’s latest tracker poll The above chart is from the latest report by Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report showing the results of the YouGov daily tracker on perceptions of leading politicians. It is all part of data in the firm’s Brand Index survey which involves questioning, online, 2,000 people everyday. Just after the local elections Cameron had a positive rating of 28%. Today’s report shows that has dipped to 12% and is now below…
Does the ex-PR boss KNOW that Blair will be out in September 2007? This week’s Spectator, out this morning, is carrying a report about a chance conversation between the ex-editor and now shadow minister, Boris Johnson and Alistair Campbell which seems to confirm that Tony Blair will step down at the 2007 party conference. The political column notes “At a coffee stall inside Lord’s cricket ground on Monday, two customers bumped into each other with a start. Alastair Campbell and…