ICM solves the great historical polling mystery. On Monday evening there was a vigorous debate on the site after I published an article on how a 3% lead in the ICM poll of October 1993 had been listed in Mori table of all polls as a 15% margin. Some people just did not believe it because the recall of many from that period was of mega Labour leads. This has become highly relevant today with many comparing the current Tory…
What do we think of the internet politics TV channel? Tonight saw the launch of the new internet politics TV channel which has been funded by YouGov founder, Stefan Shakespeare and is being fronted by top-bloggers Iain Dale and Tim Montgomerie of ConservativeHome. The plan is to broadcast for four hours each evening and the channel has recruited a number of bloggers, including me, to provide occasional reports. The channel name comes from the address of the elegant terrace house…
Why isn’t the Chancellor’s price tightening? After this morning’s Populus Poll showing that neither John Reid or Alan Johnson would do better against Cameron than Gordon Brown I finally came to the view that it would take very unusual circumstances indeed for the Chancellor not to succeed Tony Blair. My line until now was that what could derail Brown’s chances would be hard polling evidence that another contender would perform better. That could still happen of course but it is…
But Labour’s deficit is 8% with Brown/Cameron named as leaders The first fully post-conference season poll to be carried out, that for Populus in the Times this morning, has Labour moving to within just one point of the Tories. The shares with changes on the last Populus poll a month ago are: CON 36% (nc): LAB 35% (+3): LD 18% (-2). In the same October survey in 2005 which took place after the Tory conference in Blackpool had been dominating…
The dangers of making historical polling comparisons Like many polling nerds whenever I’ve wanted to check some past polling information I’ve gone to Mori’s “all firms” historical data tables. They are easily accessible and apparently comprehensive – except that Mori does not appear to recognise YouGov. But there’s a huge danger of using this source which I think is affecting current perceptions of Labour’s poll leads before they got into Government – many of the numbers in the Mori table…
Betfair opens new White House 2008 market In just over a year’s time the potential candidates to be the next President will have to reveal their hands. For in order to get on the ballot for the first of the primaries, New Hampshire, formal nomination papers will have to be handed in during November and there’ll be fierce contest in both parties. And for the first time ever in the USA’s 230 year old history prominent women are being talked…
See for yourself the efffects of the boundary changes Anthony Wells, the person behind UK Polling Report, has this afternoon launched the latest version of his Election Guide – available online here. It’s a mine of information that we are sure to be looking at time and time again in the run up to the next General Election. Anthony (pictured above at the PBC party earlier in the year talking to a shy Guido hiding behind his beer glass) has…
..and Brown trails 11% on “who would be best PM” In the first public poll after the conference season ICM in the Sunday Telegraph is reporting a big increase in the Tory lead and some poor figures for the Chancellor over “who would make the best Prime Minister”. The shares with comparisons on the last ICM poll a week ago are CON 38% (+2): LAB 32% (-3): LD 20%(+1). This is the second biggest lead that the pollster has had…