Why is the Telegraph’s favourite party doing so badly? In last night’s by-elections, UKIP won the sort of votes which normally go to joke candidates. In Croydon LBC, Bensham Manor, they took 40 votes, 1.5% of the total, which was down from 305 in 2006. In Nuneaton BC, Bede, they won 8. They can at least take consolation from the fact that they beat the candidate for the Official Monster Raving Looney Party in Croydon. But their 8 votes in…
Is this a way of for Gordon to distinguish himself from the Blair era? According to the Independent this morning there is a big campaign going on at Westminster to block BSkyB (Chairman R. Murdoch) from gaining effective control over ITV. More than 60 MPs have signed up to a motion calling on the Government to use its special powers to prevent such a move taking place. They want it referred to the Competition Commission. The MPs fear that with…
Who’s betting against Gordon? Conventional wisdom has it that Gordon Brown will become Labour leader and Prime Minister sometime this year. So why aren’t the markets showing the same confidence in him? His odds on the Betfair exchange have been 0.20/1 plus or minus a few hundredths for over two months now after dropping dramatically in October last year. Although we don’t know exactly when the succession will be, we do know that we’re getting closer to it and so…
Is this how gains-losses board will look on May 4th? I’ve already started trying to find betting opportunities for one contest that takes place on May 3rd – the race for the mayor of Bedford where I live. Hopefully local bookies will once again be quoting prices because it looks like an interesting battle of big personalities. Last time the boss of a local newspaper group won as an independent on a very low turnout in a standalone election. The…
Should we do the same as last year? Mike’s too busy working out how much money his book is going to make him so somebody else is going to have to organise this year’s PB Party. I’m happy to do it if I can have some assistance. Apparently Book Value and Innocent Abroad helped out last year. Any volunteers this year? I’ll put in £100 from the money I’m going to win on John Cruddas. I think Henry G offered…
Why is there zilch betting interest in the Scottish and Welsh elections? These are the latest prices from Betfair on this May’s devolved elections in Scotland and Wales. As you can see the betting has hardly caught the imagination of punters with less than £400 having been traded on the Edinburgh Parliament result and a paltry £77 on Cardiff. Just look at the Scottish numbers – both Labour and the SNP are at prices much tighter than evens. That does…
Why don’t voters believe that he’s telling the truth? This single line of data from the Populus poll for February could point to the first big challenge for Brown in the post-Blair world. For if the Yates inquiry does lead to charges then the line-up of opposition attack dogs – from the Tories to the Lib Dems, the SNP and PC – will have no real interest in Blair himself. He’s yesterday’s man and toast. The big target will be…
Introducing the Five P column A couple of weeks ago IG Index introduced a new political spread betting market based upon the results of YouGov’s Political Popularity poll. IG invited punters to bet on the movements, up or down, of selected leading politicians in their ‘Brand Index’ poll. Aaron Bell wrote a piece in response and gave his recommended buys and sells. It was intended to be a regular weekly piece but unfortunately he cannot continue and so you’ve got…