r Reform UK move to 10% Above is this month’s poll of the 40 RedWall seats from R&W. In these seats 39 were taken by the Tories at GE2019 – the other one, Hartlepool, waa gained in a by-election. Perhaps the most ominous finding for the Tories is that Reform UK are on 10%. A real worry for Sunak’s party must be the ability of Reform UK to peel off a fair part of its vote in a general election….
Kate Forbes slumps to 12% The first couple of days in the SNP leadership betting has seen some very sharp changes as we see from the chart above. The biggest winner is Yousaf while Forbes drops to a 12% chance. Could it be that we soon end up with the leaders of both the Conservative Party nationally and the SNP being of Asian origin? Mike Smithson
The 2021 census data reported that for the first time the catholic population was the largest religious group in Northern Ireland. Unsurprisingly Sinn Fein immediately began the push for a border poll. There was lots of noise and then towards the end of 2021 it all went quiet. Perhaps one of the reasons for the silence was a series of polls conducted by the Irish Times sampling views on the centenary of partition. The Irish Times polled voters both north…
Generally speaking we can partly explain poll shifts as being within the margin of error but not so with tonight’s R&W survey which came out this afternoon. As can be seen the Labour lead is up 6% on last week’s poll from the firm. Quite what has been driving this is hard to explain but these are the worst numbers from this pollster since Sunak became leader last October. This does not bode well for the Tories in the May…
This was her Tweet and video announcing her move. Mike Smithson
Did Nicola know the SNP position was built on sand? If ever there was an argument against the first past the post voting system then the outcome in Scotland at the last election makes a great case. The chart shows the proportion of the Scottish vote that each of the parties who won MPs had and compares it with the percentage of Scottish MPs that the party achieved. LAB’s 18.6% Scottish vote produced just 1.7% of the seats. The SNP…
Electorally, I cannot think of anything more ghastly than being compelled to vote, any politician or party that proposes compulsory voting will not receive my vote. If such a policy did become law the primary consequence would be an increase in the number of ballot papers with phallus shaped drawings on them. TSE
I’ve been clear for a while that I’m not convinced a Labour majority is likely at the next election, simply because of the toxic legacy Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed Sir Keir Starmer and the electoral geography being poorer for Labour at the next election than in 1997. The other nagging doubt is about Sir Keir Starmer, longstanding readers of PB know that leader ratings that Ipsos produce are often a better predictors of general election outcomes than voting intention polls. Starmer…