All the signs are that the Tories are going to struggle to hold onto power at the general election. According to the John Curtice calculation they will need a overall GB vote lead of about 3% to ensure that they have got a majority. Labour by contrast need 7%. Although the polls have edged down a fair bit since their worst moments last year the Tories are still facing a huge struggle in order to put them into a position…
A couple of days ago I was driving North up the M6 when we stopped at a service station. The car pictured above was was being charged as we arrived and was still being charged when we left after about half an hour. It struck me that having to go through this process once or twice on a trip was an enormous hassle. I remember a conversation with a guy who provided services for the electrical power industry who declared…
Poor Donald Trump, he spent most of 2016 arguing that Hillary Clinton should be locked up now he might end up being locked up himself. What a failure Trump was, in four years as President with a GOP senate, a GOP House for the first two years, and a SCOTUS with a majority of GOP hacks, he wasn’t able to destroy the deep state. None of this changes my view that Trump will still win the GOP nomination. TSE
There is some hope among Tory strategists and Sunak himself that a mixture of tax cuts and Sunak’s leadership will help the Tories do better at the general election than the current polls suggest. This is polling from Redfield & Wilton shows how risky that strategy could do. I suspect whilst Sunak polls better than his party, I suspect any positives Sunak has is being damaged by the huge negatives around the party. Sunak has made mistakes, such as keeping…
The Tories paying the price for Brexit? We are so used to the Tories being the party that attracts big private donations that makes this political development stand out. It is a huge win for Starmer not just for the campaign cash that his party is getting but for the source and the reasons. The FT report notes that the big driver of this donation was Brexit and the Tories must hope that this is not the start of a…
The local results came as quite the shock to those at the top of the Tory party, the weekend before the locals the Tory expectations management was for around 600 seat loses which means they were really expecting losses of somewhere around 400 to 500 seat losses so they could spin the result as better than the expectations/polls. The result was much more horrific for Sunak’s party. I’ll need some solid data rather than anecdata that shy switchers are actually…
At the 2019 general election the Tories led Labour by 35% amongst voters who owned their homes and led Labour by 10% with mortgage holders, whilst this polling from Redfield & Wilton doesn’t split the between homeowners and mortgage holders it is pretty alarming for the Tories. Although it has recovered from the low point and rapid shift of the Liz Truss premiership cheering the fact the Tories are only trailing Labour by 1% with this demographic is as idiotic…