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For those of us who take a keen interest in Scottish affairs this polling doesn’t come as a surprise. The toxic trans debate was likely to lead to suboptimal polling for Sturgeon, the SNP, and Scottish independence, particularly the specifics involving the Isla Bryson story. I have a hunch this is likely to be temporary blip for the SNP as I thought the Supreme Court’s intervention last year on Scottish independence would be a temporary blip for the Unionist movement…

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No, today isn’t April Fools’ Day, The Times have this revelation on Sunak’s travails This weekend [Liz] Truss will make her first public intervention since her premiership ended, with an opinion piece calling for tax cuts and supply-side reforms. Her allies say she stands by her prescription for growth but accepts that she tried to do too much as prime minister. “She thinks she lost the battle but this is a long game,” one ally said. Her supporters are mobilising, resurrecting the…

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Such is the inevitability of Raab’s departure that as far as I can see no bookie has a next cabinet minister to leave market. It has also been six days since Sunak fired Nadhim Zahawi and in those six days Sunak hasn’t appointed a new party chairman, probably due to the fact Raab’s shameful behaviour will trigger a resignation so it will be better to do a wider reshuffle. Stories like this damage the Tory party as it brings back…

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It’s not RIshi Sunak’s fault that he’s richer than Scrooge McDuck but comments like the one from Piers Morgan aren’t unexpected. The politics of envy seldom work, as evidenced with the attacks on David Cameron’s poshness being ineffectual but Sunak needs to come up with a better response to questions similar to the one from Morgan. I’ve had relationships that have lasted shorter than the silence in the clip above. If Sunak wants to have a successful general election campaign…

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Yesterday saw Rishi Sunak’s one hundredth day in office and YouGov released some polling on his first one hundred days and it makes pretty grim reading for Sunak and the Tories. The nicest thing people might end up saying about Rishi Sunak is that he’s not as rubbish as Boris Johnson or Liz Truss which is a bar so low that it is actually touching the ground. The one that probably is the most damaging is that the Tory brand…

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This is a betting market that I’ve not looked at before and it is very difficult to argue that the current odds are wrong. There is little doubt that Johnson, given half a chance, would love to be back at Number 10. The question is whether or not he is going to be given that chance. At the moment that seems unlikely. Sunak is getting more established at Number 10 having just completed his first 100 days. A worry for…

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This week Sunak completed his first 100 days in Downing Street and looks pretty solid to continue there until the general election. While the latest batch of polls has three surveys with the deficit in teens the overall picture is still fairly daunting for Tory strategists. To maintain a majority the party probably needs a lead of 5% over LAB and that seems a very remote possibility. The fact is that in spite of two leader changes the polls are…

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Not enough of the GE2019 CON vote is going LAB The above chart is based on data from tonight’s YouGov poll for the Times and seeks to show how the 2019 Tory vote is currently viewing the next election. The big worry I would have if I was Starmer is that the party is not picking up enough of the Tory vote from last time. Getting just 12% of them points to a real struggle next time when one would…

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