The PBC Labour Deputy Leader Competition

The PBC Labour Deputy Leader Competition

Part 1 For each of the six candidates, predict their overall percentage share of the first preference votes to one decimal place (ie for all three sections of the electoral college combined – do not make a prediction for the three individual components). To assist in running the competition, please make your predictions in the following order: • Hilary Benn • Hazel Blears • John Cruddas • Peter Hain • Harriet Harman • Alan Johnson Part 2 Select one candidate…

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Was Paddy Ashdown behind the Guardian story?

Was Paddy Ashdown behind the Guardian story?

Could the ex-LD leader be being courted by Gordon? After a morning of denials, rumours, claim and counter-claims there is a suggestion that the person behind the Guardian story is the former leader, Paddy Ashdown, who was involved in the 1997 linkage between the Lib Dems and Labour. According to the blog by the Daily Mail’s Ben Brogan “Westminster rumour has it that it came from a briefing by Lord Ashdown to Alan Rusbridger, the Guardian editor, which explains the…

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Would accepting this be the end of Ming?

Would accepting this be the end of Ming?

Should the Tories be cheering such a development? Reproduced above is part of the top political story in the Guardian this morning which, if true and implemented, could change the face of British politics. For Ming Campbell and the Lib Dems such an offer could appear to be very tempting and for Brown it would be a way of showing from day one that his approach is going to be vastly different from Tony Blair’s. Yet such an offer if…

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Has the tide turned for John Howard?

Has the tide turned for John Howard?

Guest slot on the Australian election by Steven Phelps There have been some major changes in the polls and in the betting on the coming Australian election since I last reported. First, a quick recap. The next Aussie General Election is expected to be held in October this year. Pollsters quote a Two Party-Preferred (TPP) basis result, which allows for second preferences. The Coalition, led by John Howard, has won the last 4 General Elections, 1996, 1998, 2001 and 2004….

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How the views of Sun readers get magnifed by YouGov

How the views of Sun readers get magnifed by YouGov

Is this why the Lib Dems do so badly with the pollster? One of the great puzzles of modern polling is why the Lib Dems always seem to have the lowest shares with the internet firm, YouGov. Thus the latest 14% total compares with the 21% that ICM was reporting in its latest survey. Clearly there’s something about the methodology of the two firms that causes such a disparity. Thanks to data that was prepared for last Friday’s British Polling…

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Voters believe they’d be better off under Dave

Voters believe they’d be better off under Dave

More findings from Sunday’s YouGov poll released The above is reproduced from the detailed data from the YouGov poll that appeared in the Sunday Times and has just been made available on the pollster’s web-site in line with British Polling Council transparency requirements. I find the response to the “Who would you trust more to raise your and your family’s standard of living?” question very surprising, especially in view of all positive scores that Gordon has had as Chancellor. As…

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Could Brown be tempted by an early election?

Could Brown be tempted by an early election?

Is this the time to pounce? With Cameron continuing to have polling difficulties and the Lib Dems still shedding support could Brown be considering an immediate general election? The standard view is that he’s a notoriously cautious man and that after his long wait he’s not going to risk it by a precipitous election decision. But will there be a better time than now when he has all attraction of novelty going for him? He would have his own mandate…

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Introducing – the Populus guide on how to split the Tories?

Introducing – the Populus guide on how to split the Tories?

Is this the agenda for Brown to make trouble for Cameron? A striking illustration of the challenge facing David Cameron comes from a Populus survey of MPs of all parties in the Times this morning on their views on key social values. A total of 128 MPs were included and were made up of 70 Labour, 39 Tories, 13 Lib Dems and six others. The sample was weighted to reflect the balance of parties within the House. These are some…

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