Labour nerves send spreads down four seats

Labour nerves send spreads down four seats

Which way will the market go next? After moving to its highest level for more than a year following the Labour’s solid poll progress there’s been a move back since yesterday’s events in the Commons. The Spreadfair Commons seat spreads are now CON 271.1-274.9: LAB 287-291: LDs 48.1-53.6. Earlier in the week Labour reached 291-294 seats. With this form of betting punters buy and sell the number of seats they think the parties will get at the election. You make…

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Brown’s first PMQs: The press verdict

Brown’s first PMQs: The press verdict

The assembled ranks of parliamentary sketch writers had a field day with Gordon’s first PMQs and, it has to be said, the reviews won’t make comfortable reading inside Number 10. Reproduced above is the start of Ann Treneman’s description in the Times of yesterday’s first PMQs for Gordon. She went on: “The event was a slow crash involving one vehicle only. This was no Tony Blair-style Formula One racing duel of burning tyres and screeching corners. Instead we watched as…

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Could this man be London’s next Mayor?

Could this man be London’s next Mayor?

Would he have a chance of beating Ken? While everybody has been focussed on Gordon’s first PMQs the other political story that’s developing is a suggestion that Boris Johnson could be the Tory candidate for Mayor of London. According to BBC Online the suggestion follows the abortive attempt to engage the ex-BBC Director General Greg Dyke. Clearly who ever it is has to be a big character if the Tories are to have any chance of ending Ken Livingstyone’s eight…

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Brown vs Cameron – the first PMQs

Brown vs Cameron – the first PMQs

Everyone says PMQs don’t matter…..but? Just two days short of nineteen months after he became leader of the Tory party David Cameron faces Gordon Brown in the Commons at noon for their first PMQs. The sense of occasion is slightly less because of the exchanges yesterday on the constitutional changes. This is probably much more important for Cameron rather than Brown for, inevitably, governments can to a large extent set the news agenda. With the opinion polls taking a bit…

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Betfair opens by election and leader exit markets

Betfair opens by election and leader exit markets

Could the issues all link together over Ming Campbell’s future? The Betfair betting exchange has opened five new political markets as part of its desire to increase the range of options available to punters. That there should be betting on the two by elections is no surprise but it’s good that the firm has wasted little time in setting them up. Even though Labour starts from extraordinarily strong positions in both seats, as the general election figures show, by elections…

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The first encounter – what do we think?

The first encounter – what do we think?

Who came out best on the constitutional exchanges? This afternoon, a day earlier than expected, we saw the first exchanges between David Cameron and Gordon Brown. The occasion was Brown’s announcement on the constitutional changes and they gave the Tory leader the opening to raise the “English Votes for English Laws” issue as well as an EU referendum. After being out of the limelight for so long the exchanges gave him a platform for two seemingly populist policies which might…

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Is Gordon winning the battle for the centre ground?

Is Gordon winning the battle for the centre ground?

But why’s there so much turbulence amongst LD supporters? This is the updated version of a chart that is featured often here – how declared LD supporters respond to YouGov’s question of whether they would prefer a Brown-led Labour government or a Cameron-led Tory one? This is asked every month of all voters but the chart just focuses on the Lib Dems. Those surveyed are not given any other option and the results are probably a good pointer to potential…

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Should the Tories be relieved by Populus?

Should the Tories be relieved by Populus?

What will the gap settle down at? One of the things you should never do is compare a survey from one pollster with one from another pollster and then try to suggest that there is some trend. Each of the surveys carried out by the five main UK firms use different approaches so that concluding that there has been movement when one from one survey from one firm is different from another from a different firm is simply not valid….

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