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What will be the impact of Lit attending a Labour fundraiser? There are two major UK politics stories today – the first being news of Southall Conservative candidate Tony Lit’s appearance at a recent Labour fundraising dinner – more details here. With the by-election only four days away, it remains to be seen what chance the Conservatives still have to win. The second is the publication of an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph giving Labour 40, the Conservatives 33…

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Just arriving in Calais after my short holiday in time to focus on the next five days of intense activity for the by elections. How will Gordon go down when real voters cast real votes next Thursday? Will the bounce that we’ve seen in the polls be sustained with Labour comfortably retaining both seats, albeit with reduced majorities? I’ve got £400 at risk already and no doubt I’ll be tempted more in the coming days. These are my bets: £200…

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Could he make it past Giuliani to be the Republican nominee? Without actually having declared yet, Fred Thompson has already made a big impact on the 2008 White House race. In recent polling, he has normally been in the top two candidates for the Republican nomination, leading Giuliani by one point in the last Rasmussen poll, and with an average of 19% on the Real Clear Politics numbers. On the betting markets, he is close behind Giuliani in the race…

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Paddy Power, the Irish bookmakers, have decided to cough up some cash and refund money to all those customers who placed bets on where the first UK super-casino would be located. This follows Gordon Brown response at PMQs when he sensationally scrapped plans for the project to go ahead. This will cost the firm a packet for those who received winnings in January on Manchester won’t have to hand the money back. Let’s hope other firms follow suit. Mike Smithson

What can we tell from last night’s results….? Camden LBC, Haverstock LD Matt Sanders 1160 (43.4; -0.2), Lab 1000 (37.4; +3.0), Green 299 (11.2; +0.4), Con 213 (8.0; -3.2). Majority 160. Turnout 34.1%. LD gain from Lab. Last fought 2006. Craven DC, Cowling Con 351 (64.3; +47.4), Ratepayer 136 (24.9; +24.9), Ind 59 (10.8; -34.3), [Ind (0.0; -38.1)]. Majority 215. Turnout 31.2%. Con gain from Ind. Last fought 2004. Hounslow LBC, Hanworth Park Con 1054 (41.1; -3.3), Lab 729 (28.4;…

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Or should we stick with the traditional Thursday? As part of the package of constitutional changes unveiled by Gordon Brown recently, possibly moving the day of general elections received a cameo appearance. It has been the convention for decades now that UK elections are held on Thursdays, although this is not laid down by statute. Election days vary widely around the world, with Canada on Monday, the USA and Israel on Tuesday, the Netherlands on Wednesday and Australia on Saturday….

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Argentina may be set for female President Current Argentine President Néstor Kirchner has announced that he will not be seeking re-election in October’s poll – but his wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will be standing instead, and polls currently give her 45% of the vote, over 30 points clear of her nearest challenger. Argentina has a slightly complicated two-ballot system for its presidential election, not exactly like the systems used in France, Russia, or Brazil. Comparisons may be drawn with…

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Do Labour need to do more than just hold on? By an accident of timing the fieldwork for both ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian and the Communicate Research survey for the Independent is due to start a week tomorrow when, no doubt, the results of the Sedgefield and Ealing Southall by elections will be dominating the news. So with its new leader being in office for little more than a fortnight Labour desperately needs to keep up the momentum…

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