Could Cameron’s primary plan be used to stop Boris?

Could Cameron’s primary plan be used to stop Boris?

Will Labour supporters mess up the Tory election? In what could appear an ill-thought out move during the brash days of Cameron’s leadership the Tories decided that their choice for London mayor should be decided by an open primary in which any London voter could take part. But what sounded like a PR stunt could now be used against the party by its opponents to stop Boris getting on the ballot. For there are reports that Labour supporters are attempting…

Read More Read More

Is Gord’s media honeymoon coming to an end?

Is Gord’s media honeymoon coming to an end?

Why was the Beeb so quick to apologise? Having spent ten years in my early career as an editor with BBC News it strikes me that the quick apology that has been made for parts of the corporation’s coverage of the Tory competition proposals is something of a watershed and might suggest that Brown’s media honeymoon might be running out of steam. The BBC does not usually react so quickly – especially when the initial source of the complaint was…

Read More Read More

Could the same small town produce another President?

Could the same small town produce another President?

Can Huckabee raise the money to build on his Iowa success? This is a picture of the rail road station in Hope, Arkansas – a small town that calls itself a city and has a population of just 10,467. Just about its only claim fame is that it is the birth-place of the Bill Clinton, who, of course, went on to become state governor before running successfully for the White House in 1992 and 1996. Extraordinarily Hope is also the…

Read More Read More

Can Gord satisfy the Scots and the English at the same time?

Can Gord satisfy the Scots and the English at the same time?

How would more devolution affect Labour south of the border? The announcement by Scotland First Minister, the SNP’s Alex Salmond, that there’s to be a “national conversation”, a distinctly new Labour term, on the future governance of Scotland could present a real challenge for Brown. For on the one hand he wants to head off the SNP pressure and might consider more devolution – but how does he do that without the role of Scottish Labour MPs at Westminster becoming…

Read More Read More

Can Romney’s wealth get him the nomination?

Can Romney’s wealth get him the nomination?

Was Mitt’s Iowa victory worth $800 a vote? The major event in the campaign for the GOP nomination for next year’s White House was the so-called Ames Straw Poll that took place at the weekend. This is a gathering of Iowa Republicans where voting takes place on which candidate attendees would like to see win the nomination at the Iowa caucus in January – the first of the fifty states to complete its process to decide which to back. Mitt…

Read More Read More

What will Cameron be able to do with this?

What will Cameron be able to do with this?

Is the Guardian splash a gift to the beleaguered Tories? An extraordinary piece of journalistic digging by the Guardian this morning suggests that since Brown became PM on June 27th his government been able to announce new spending of £39.32 billion pounds and that this flurry of activity has been behind the bounce in the polls. The new spending includes an extra £7.7bn for defence to 2011; £15bn to improve the railways; £4bn extra spending on early years education over…

Read More Read More

Good and bad news for Dave from the ICM detail

Good and bad news for Dave from the ICM detail

Could Brown risk an October election based on this data? The full detail from yesterday’s ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror is now on the ICM website and, as I usually do, have clipped the voting intention the above voting intention data categories by what respondents said they did last time. My rationale is that the views of declared actual voters and how their allegiances are churning give a different picture compared with the headline figures – which include the…

Read More Read More

Punters not convinced by YouGov’s 10% Labour lead?

Punters not convinced by YouGov’s 10% Labour lead?

Why are the polls failing to move the markets? Before the 2005 general election there was not a single period when Labour had the poll leads it is enjoying today when the Commons seat spread betting markets were showing anything other than that Blair was heading for a substantial majority. Looking over the records an average Labour poll lead of about 6% prompted the markets to show a Labour majority in the 70-100 seat range. Yet today with an average…

Read More Read More