How can they stop it looking like the fall of Saigon? The above picture was taken on April 30th 1975 and shows the last American helicopter as it was about to fly the final group of people from the roof of the US embassy to safety. Shortly afterwards the city fell and the United States had lost the Vietnam war. That defeat had a huge impact on US politics which still has consequences today. So what’s going to be the…
You’ll have to wait for our multi Gordon pictures With all the talk of a general election everybody it seems, is waiting for the next polls. Sadly I think we are going to have to hold on for at least a few more days. Suggestions that there could be a poll overnight were not correct. I had thought that fieldwork for the Guardian’s August ICM poll was following its normal pattern with the survey taking place over the weekend for…
How dangerous is Brown’s anti-referendum stance for Labour? A new ICM poll in the Daily Mail this morning suggest that nearly a quarter of all Labour voters could desert if the Brown government continues to refuse to hold a referendum on the planned EU constitutional changes. A total of 82% of those questioned said the revised treaty should be ratified by a referendum and not by parliament. Amongst declared Labour supporters 80% backed the referendum idea with 54% of them…
Will this man replace John Howard in the autumn? The next Aussie General Election will be the 5th since Coalition leader John Howard became PM in 1996. It’s virtually certain to be held in either late October or in November, with a possibility of early December. Two contrasting trends have emerged in recent weeks:1. the opinion polls have continued to show a slow but gentle improvement in the Coalition’s fortunes, and 2. the betting markets have tightened considerably, moving against…
Is there the evidence to make the toughest call in British politics? This is Deborah Mattinson, joint chief executive of Opinion Leader Research, a pollster for the Labour party for the past two decades and the person who will advise Brown on whether to go for an early general election. If Brown does decide to go in October it will be because Mattinson is convinced not only that Labour cannot lose but that Gord will almost certainly top Tony’s 2005…
Does the chart say it all? It is some time since this chart, showing how punters are assessing Labour and Tory chances of winning most seats has been featured here. It illustrates the changing views of the main parties chances based on the price available on Betfair converted into an implied probability. The steep Brown bounce is there for all to see and the issue is whether the Labour price will harden even more as the party consolidates its poll…
Do UKIP and the BNP Really Damage the Conservatives? One problem that David Cameron has to contend with, in contrast to Tony Blair in the 1990s, is that disgruntled Conservatives have somewhere to go. Neither UKIP, nor the BNP could be regarded as a serious challenger for political power, yet each party has shown that it can obtain significant votes, in individual constituencies. In 2005, UKIP won 620,000 votes, and saved 35 deposits, and the BNP won 191,000, and saved…
Are we seeing the start of the general election campaign? All the information coming out of the Brown camp before June 27th was that his first target would be to push the Tories from the centre ground by forcing them to the right. If that indeed was the plan then there will be delight within Labour this morning. For the Tory John Redwood policy commission is publishing its findings today and the headline grabbing move is a plan to, as…