October or not? – a new ICM poll doesn’t help

October or not? – a new ICM poll doesn’t help

Labour’s lead moves from 8% to 6% The main driver of the week’s heightened speculation that Brown would chance everything on an October election was the Guardian’s ICM poll on Wednesday showing the Labour lead moving up three points to 8%. Today a new poll from the same pollster in the Sunday Mirror has that down to 6% which while not very significant in itself could affect the mood and particularly the sentiment on the betting markets. As I reported…

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How Gordon has changed the markets

How Gordon has changed the markets

Is there still value betting on Labour? The top box shows the latest commons seat spreads from the market that I play the most – how many seats Labour will get at the next election. Underneath are the spreads that existed on June 27th – just as Gordon was being driven back down the Mall after becoming Prime Minister. This is a betting exchange where the prices are not set by the bookmaker but what individual punters are prepared to…

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Has Brown got big enough leads to outshine Tony?

Has Brown got big enough leads to outshine Tony?

Will today’s YouGov poll dampen the election speculation? The promised YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph is out this morning and the numbers are nothing like the ones that the hoaxer, cj, tried to suggest on the site overnight Thursday-Friday. He is now banned permanently from publishing comments here. The shares are with changes on the last YouGov poll at the weekend – CON 33%(-1): LAB 39%(nc): LD 16%(+1). So not much change except a one point boost for the…

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Would the Tories do better without Dave?

Would the Tories do better without Dave?

Could there be value in this new market? Reproduced above are the opening prices in a market from Paddy Power on who will lead the Tories at the general election. If this opportunity had been there before Brown’s arrival at Number 10 punters would have snapped up the 1/3 offered on Cameron’s survival. Now, after a string of seriously poor polls, it looks at bit different. The real issue at the moment is the massive turbulence in the polls. At…

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Hoaxers will be banned from PBC

Hoaxers will be banned from PBC

Was last night’s YouGov poll claim a spoof? According to a contributor on the site last night there should have been a YouGov poll out this morning showing a 9% Labour lead. The poster, cj, has only been making contributions here since August 30th and from his contributions overnight overnight it appeared that he might be trying to deceive. At 10.30 pm he wrote “im hearing that yougov is VERY bad for the tories tomorrow…i should have intention figures by…

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Has Ming answered his critics?

Has Ming answered his critics?

Is the party now back with a policy of equidistance? The Lib Dems who’ve been returning home this evening after their Brighton conference should have been absolutely delighted with the closing speech by Ming Campbell. After days of being questioned about his age and his fitness to lead his performance, judging from the playbacks on the computer, appeared excellent and, more significantly, undid much of the damage from his last major speech to the party at the Harrogate conference in…

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Is a switch to UKIP behind the Tory decline?

Is a switch to UKIP behind the Tory decline?

Is Cameron finally losing his right wing? The above is part of the detailed data from yesterday’s ICM poll in the Guardian and has figures which should be deeply worrying for the Tory leadership. The section I reproduce shows the current voting intentions of those who said they voted for the three main parties in 2005 and the figure that stands out is the proportion of 2005 Tory voters who now say they will switch to UKIP. From a quick…

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Will no 2007 general election be Ming’s resignation “peg”?

Will no 2007 general election be Ming’s resignation “peg”?

How does he go with dignity and consistency? The main interest in Ming’s closing speech to the Lib Dem conference in Brighton today will be whether it sounds like a valedictory. Certainly from the briefings that have come out it is starting to look that way. Ming’s problem is how he gets round his previous statements that he would lead the party into the next general elections. If he goes early it would looks as though he had been forced…

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