Is a switch to UKIP behind the Tory decline?

Is a switch to UKIP behind the Tory decline?


    Is Cameron finally losing his right wing?

The above is part of the detailed data from yesterday’s ICM poll in the Guardian and has figures which should be deeply worrying for the Tory leadership.

The section I reproduce shows the current voting intentions of those who said they voted for the three main parties in 2005 and the figure that stands out is the proportion of 2005 Tory voters who now say they will switch to UKIP. From a quick scan through the records this is the highest this has been.

Until now there’ve been lots of threats on CONhome and from writers like Simon Heffer of a desertion of traditional Tory voters to UKIP and this simply has not been shown in the polling data – that is until this latest survey.

Normally the number of Tory>UKIP switchers has been at 1% or even less. This figure is quite startling.

Mike Smithson

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