But should Brown be worried by the Sun’s coverage? The latest opinion poll to be published, Ipsos-Mori in the Sun, has good news for Labour and bad news for the Tories and the Lib Dems. We don’t know yet, however, when the survey was actually carried out. If previous months are anything to go by then the fieldwork probably took place before yesterday’s ICM poll. These are the shares with changes on the last Ipsos-Mori poll in August – CON…
Do today’s comments close down the 2007 election suggestions? I have just listened to the online playback of this afternoon’s “The World the Weekend” and I am almost convinced, like Ben Brogan, that Gord’s loyal aide for more than a decade, Ed Balls has effectively ruled out the possibility of an October election. If anybody’s going to know what’s in Brown’s mind Balls is. Listen for yourself and draw you own conclusion. It’s towards the end of the programme. The…
Labour’s lead moves from 8% to 6% The main driver of the week’s heightened speculation that Brown would chance everything on an October election was the Guardian’s ICM poll on Wednesday showing the Labour lead moving up three points to 8%. Today a new poll from the same pollster in the Sunday Mirror has that down to 6% which while not very significant in itself could affect the mood and particularly the sentiment on the betting markets. As I reported…
Is there still value betting on Labour? The top box shows the latest commons seat spreads from the market that I play the most – how many seats Labour will get at the next election. Underneath are the spreads that existed on June 27th – just as Gordon was being driven back down the Mall after becoming Prime Minister. This is a betting exchange where the prices are not set by the bookmaker but what individual punters are prepared to…
Will today’s YouGov poll dampen the election speculation? The promised YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph is out this morning and the numbers are nothing like the ones that the hoaxer, cj, tried to suggest on the site overnight Thursday-Friday. He is now banned permanently from publishing comments here. The shares are with changes on the last YouGov poll at the weekend – CON 33%(-1): LAB 39%(nc): LD 16%(+1). So not much change except a one point boost for the…
Could there be value in this new market? Reproduced above are the opening prices in a market from Paddy Power on who will lead the Tories at the general election. If this opportunity had been there before Brown’s arrival at Number 10 punters would have snapped up the 1/3 offered on Cameron’s survival. Now, after a string of seriously poor polls, it looks at bit different. The real issue at the moment is the massive turbulence in the polls. At…
Was last night’s YouGov poll claim a spoof? According to a contributor on the site last night there should have been a YouGov poll out this morning showing a 9% Labour lead. The poster, cj, has only been making contributions here since August 30th and from his contributions overnight overnight it appeared that he might be trying to deceive. At 10.30 pm he wrote “im hearing that yougov is VERY bad for the tories tomorrow…i should have intention figures by…
Is the party now back with a policy of equidistance? The Lib Dems who’ve been returning home this evening after their Brighton conference should have been absolutely delighted with the closing speech by Ming Campbell. After days of being questioned about his age and his fitness to lead his performance, judging from the playbacks on the computer, appeared excellent and, more significantly, undid much of the damage from his last major speech to the party at the Harrogate conference in…