Why is the Times leading on the plagiarism suggestions?

Why is the Times leading on the plagiarism suggestions?

Will this impede Brown’s election momentum? Reproduced here is the front page of this morning’s Times showing the lead story which won’t please Number 10. For Labour’s new leader is accused of “rehashing old phrases from Bill Clinton and Al Gore without attribution in his first speech to a Labour conference as Prime Minister”. The report describes a study of Brown conference speech on Monday which “shows a marked similarity between parts of Mr Brown’s speech and big set-piece speeches…

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My rule of thumb for assessing the polls

My rule of thumb for assessing the polls

What do you think of the “2nd best 2nd worst rule”? With so many polls showing such different pictures I’ve now adopted my own “rule of thumb” for working out what the big picture is. Basically I take the latest surveys from YouGov, Mori, ComRes, ICM and Populus and take the second lowest share for Labour and the second highest shares for the Tories and Lib Dems. Where two or more pollsters are showing the same high figure I take…

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Is this the day you should be buying Labour seats?

Is this the day you should be buying Labour seats?

Why are the spread markets not reacting? The above shows the latest commons seat spread prices from two of the main markets – IGIndex and Spreadfair – and from where I sit these levels simply do not fit with the polling evidence. We are nearly at the stage, surely, where it’s going to be very difficult for Brown and Labour to pull back from the general election challenge. Last night’s stunning poll showing C33-LAB44-LD13 will almost certainly prove to be…

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So will 11 Gordons influence the election decision?

So will 11 Gordons influence the election decision?

The Lib Dems move down as Labour hits a staggering 44% A YouGov poll for Channel Four news taken in the immediate aftermath of of Brown’s conference speech gives Labour an amazing 44% share with the Lib Dems down to 13%. These are the shares with the changes on the last poll from the internet pollster – CON 33% (nc): LAB 44% (+5): LD 13% (-3). This is the lowest Lib Dem share from YouGov since Kennedy moved on and…

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Is this good or bad news for Brown?

Is this good or bad news for Brown?

Could a Dutch referendum have acted as a shield? News from the Hague within the past hour could have a big impact on UK politics. For as can be seen from the EU Observer report the chances of there being a referendum in the Netherlands on the EU treaty now look very slim indeed. It will be recalled that the Dutch rejected the EU constitution in a vote in 2004 which took the pressure off Tony Blair who had promised…

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Can Gordon win over any more Lib Dems?

Can Gordon win over any more Lib Dems?

Can he appeal to Ming’s party and make speeches like yesterday’s? As discussed yesterday the move to Labour in the polls has been as a result of two major developments – more Labour supporters are saying that they would be certain to vote and the party is winning back support from the party that Brown irritatingly refers to as “the Liberals”. The idea of “Gordon Conservatives” is, for the moment, a device to put pressure on the Tories. All the…

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Did Brown get the headlines he wanted?

Did Brown get the headlines he wanted?

Will this create instability amongst the the Tories? Developments in the McCann story and the Indy’s idiosyncratic approach to tabloid journalism have kept Brown’s speech off many of the front pages this morning and I reproduce above those that I can find online that are making the event their main lead. By far and away the most significant is the Sun which is continuing with its high profile campaign to get a referendum on the EU treaty. This is the…

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In search of the so-called “Gordon Conservatives”

In search of the so-called “Gordon Conservatives”

Is there any evidence that Tory voters are switching? Labour party spinners are putting it about that a new type of voter is emerging that they are calling “Gordon Conservatives”. These are people, it is claimed, who voted Tory last time but have now decided to go with Labour. According to Ben Brogan over the weekend Labour research has started to identify this group. Because this is coming from private polls we cannot see the data but from my research…

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