General election and other site announcements

General election and other site announcements

Bob Worcester: The founder of Mori and one of the most pre-eminent people in the UK polling industry, Sir Robert Worcester will be joining us for an hour or so tomorrow to discuss, amongst other things, the latest Ipsos-Mori poll – due out in the Observer in the morning. I am hoping that Bob’s appearance will start a new feature on PBC when leading figures in the polling industry can talk about how they see things going. Comment publishing arrangements….

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What more evidence does Brown need?

What more evidence does Brown need?

Two polls give Labour doubt digit leads Back in May and June I was among a number of commentators who were saying that we would really have to wait until November before we would get a clear view of how the new leadership at Number 10 had changed the political environment. Well it is looking as though that November suggestion might be when the general election itself takes place. The polls have moved so firmly and decisively in Labour’s favour…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Can Cameron turn it round? Like Iain Duncan Smith in 2003, and Michael Howard in 2004, David Cameron goes to the Conservative conference in a desperate position. Labour has an opinion poll lead that would give it an increased majority, were it to be repeated in a general election, and there are certainly some members of his party who would love nothing more than an outbreak of civil war at the party conference. Many senior figures in the Labour party…

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Does too much of Labour’s new support come from non-voters?

Does too much of Labour’s new support come from non-voters?

Why is it that the lead amongst 2005 voters is only about 3%? One of the great new polling sources that we have now that we didn’t have last time is a breakdown, segment by segment, of people’s current intentions based on what they did at the last election. This approach was pioneered by ICM just twelve months ago and now all the telephone pollsters present their detailed data in this way. This gives poll-watchers a whole range of new…

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What will Gord make of the council by elections?

What will Gord make of the council by elections?

Do these make the general election decision even harder? Having worked for BBC national news for nearly a decade and a half and having been closely involved in politics since I cannot remember a Friday morning when a batch of local councils by elections has made the headlines. The only times the news editors have taken notice of these contests in the past has been when the BNP or similar parties has made progress. Maybe it was the revelation at…

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Has the Guardian got a new poll or not?

Has the Guardian got a new poll or not?

Above is the front page of the Guardian as featured on the SkyNews website. But there’s no reference anywhere, it seems, to the numbers that are apparently on the front page. Has anybody got a copy? Does anybody know? Mike Smithson

Is Gord waiting for the polls after this?

Is Gord waiting for the polls after this?

What margin would trigger a visit to see the Queen? For all the bravado, leaking, teasing and wind-ups Gord is not going to risk his premiership on the basis of current polling evidence. What he needs to see is how the public react after they’ve been exposed to the Tories and, in particular, to the big speech by David Cameron. For much of the poll movement to Labour has been driven by the almost total news blackout from the Tories…

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Does Boris stand a chance?

Does Boris stand a chance?

Or is Ken certain of a third successive victory? This morning’s news that Boris Johnson had won an overwhelming victory in the Tory “open primary” to choose its mayoral candidate will hardly come as a surprise. In races like this it’s the most well-known that usually clinches it and there could have been little doubt that the former Spectator editor fits that category. But what are his chances? Is it possible that he could give Labour’s unopposed choice, Ken Livingstone,…

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