But is Brown waiting for the polls? Who would have thought that the first battle of the 2007 election campaign, if indeed that is what we are seeing, would be about the tax treatment of so called “non-doms” – people who work and live here but are not “domiciled”? The speed and ferocity of the Labour rebuttal machine as it sought to undermine the calculations behind the Tory plan to fund the inheritance tax proposal are a taste of what…
Could such a survey be the decider for Gord? For poll watchers last week’s Channel 4 News from the YouGov panel in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s speech was a great innovation. For it’s always been suggested that the publicity that leaders’ speeches attract do give a big boost in poll ratings but I cannot recall a time when we have been able see this from reaction within little more than 24 hours while the coverage was still dominating the…
What if a million people were unable to vote? One of the issues that is emerging about an early election is coming from the Association of Election Administrators – the body that represents those charged with running elections. Their chief executive, John Turner, has been popping up everywhere in the past twenty four hours making the same points – that because of the administrative arrangements it might be difficult staging a general election where those entitled to vote can vote….
Will the election betting markets move the other way? By the standards of the media coverage of the past three months Team Tory must be breathing a sigh of relief after day one of the party conference in Blackpool. As the TV bulletins and this morning’s front pages show the party has been commanding attention and Cameron’s phrase “The Great Conservative fight-back” is being picked up. Also there has been no really bad internal news. If there are dissident voices…
Do people switch during polling interviews? I am grateful to Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report for picking up this oddity in the Ipsos-Mori poll. As can be seen two questions were asked – “How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?” and a second “And how would you vote if there were a General Election held later this Autumn?” For the former the widely reported headline figures had a 7% Labour lead. For the latter the…
What happened when Wilson went early with a 7% lead If there is one past general election that might worry Gordon it is 1970. Harold Wilson, the prime minister, did not have to go in the June and could easily have waited until the following year. Bob Worcester, the Mori founder who was our guest this morning, has noted that when Wilson decided to go Labour had a lead of poll lead of 7%. Wilson decided to take the gamble…
Welcome to our guest – Sir Robert Worcester The big news this morning is the latest poll from Mori – the firm that was set up by Bob Worcester – is showing a Labour lead of 7%. Ipsos-Mori as it is now known has been polling in the UK for longer than anybody else and has by far and away the best web-site. Bob himself is a frequent commentator and has detailed knowledge of UK politics and opinion trends going…
Two new polls show big Tory deficits Above are two of the front pages from the Sunday papers at the start of what could be a historic week in British politics. Is Gord going to take the plunge? Can the Tories turn their desperate polling position round? The main Ipsos-Mori poll for the month is out and in the Observer. This shows the following shares with comparisons on the last Mori survey a week and a half ago – CON…