Just revealed: Mori had Labour 13% ahead last week

Just revealed: Mori had Labour 13% ahead last week

Unpublished survey shows scale of Labour’s lead An Ipsos-Mori poll where the fieldwork finished last Wednesday and so took in a large part of reaction to the Labour conference and Brown’s speech has just been published on the firm’s website. It shows a margin for Labour of 13%. It is important to stress that this survey pre-dated the Mori poll that appeared in the Observer on Sunday that had Labour 7% ahead. What this newly published survey does show is…

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Could Gord be making a terrible mistake?

Could Gord be making a terrible mistake?

Should he have waited until he’d seen all the post-Blackpool polls? If we are to believe the Guardian this morning everything is now set for an announcement on Tuesday that there will be a general election on November 1st. A whole series of actions and other measures are being set in place to allow the time-table and it’s beginning to look like Europe in August 1914 when the momentum of activity would have made it almost impossible to stop the…

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Could this man be Tory leader by Xmas?

Could this man be Tory leader by Xmas?

Is Davis the person the party would turn to after Cameron? It used to be that the highlight of Tory conferences, aside from the leader’s speech, was the appearance of the person responsible for home affairs. Crime and the control of criminals are issues that touch a raw nerve with Tories and the party expects stout and robust leadership on the issue. This afternoon’s appearance by David Davis was even more poignant because if the party decided, as has become…

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Will this win LD voters back to Labour?

Will this win LD voters back to Labour?

Is this part of the election countdown? Most of the focus of Brown’s Iraq visit has been on it all being a smart diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Tory conference in Blackpool. Well that might partially be the case but could it also be a clearing of the decks of negative Labour issues ahead of an early general election? A key group of voters that Labour strategists are concerned about are those who switched to the Lib…

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Is this Day One of the election campaign?

Is this Day One of the election campaign?

But is Brown waiting for the polls? Who would have thought that the first battle of the 2007 election campaign, if indeed that is what we are seeing, would be about the tax treatment of so called “non-doms” – people who work and live here but are not “domiciled”? The speed and ferocity of the Labour rebuttal machine as it sought to undermine the calculations behind the Tory plan to fund the inheritance tax proposal are a taste of what…

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Will Channel 4 be doing an instant Cameron poll?

Will Channel 4 be doing an instant Cameron poll?

Could such a survey be the decider for Gord? For poll watchers last week’s Channel 4 News from the YouGov panel in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s speech was a great innovation. For it’s always been suggested that the publicity that leaders’ speeches attract do give a big boost in poll ratings but I cannot recall a time when we have been able see this from reaction within little more than 24 hours while the coverage was still dominating the…

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Could this body cause Gord to delay an election?

Could this body cause Gord to delay an election?

What if a million people were unable to vote? One of the issues that is emerging about an early election is coming from the Association of Election Administrators – the body that represents those charged with running elections. Their chief executive, John Turner, has been popping up everywhere in the past twenty four hours making the same points – that because of the administrative arrangements it might be difficult staging a general election where those entitled to vote can vote….

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So what about “The Great Tory Fight-back”?

So what about “The Great Tory Fight-back”?

Will the election betting markets move the other way? By the standards of the media coverage of the past three months Team Tory must be breathing a sigh of relief after day one of the party conference in Blackpool. As the TV bulletins and this morning’s front pages show the party has been commanding attention and Cameron’s phrase “The Great Conservative fight-back” is being picked up. Also there has been no really bad internal news. If there are dissident voices…

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