The Times pollster reports a margin of just 3% The second poll of the night, just out, is from Populus for the Times and has these figures compared with the last survey at the weekend – CON 36% (+5): LAB 39% (-2): LD 15% (-2). This and ICM, expected later, are probably the most significant survey of the nights because they do weight by past vote and does weight by the likelihood to vote. A margin of 3% starts to…
And three other polls are on the way The first of a spate of polls that will come overnight has just been announced by Channel 4 news. These are the figures compared with the last poll from the firm last Saturday – CON 36%(+4): LAB 40%(-3): LD 13%(-2) Of course this followed the massive coverage of Blackpool and the good reception to Cameron’s speech. Will it be sustained? I don’t know. Other polls coming up overnight are Populus in the…
All sorts of rumours are going round tonight about big poll changes following Cameron’s big speech yesterday and the Tory conference. Ben Brogan in the Mail reports this: “…there are three polls out later – YouGov for Channel Four, Populus in the Times and ICM in the Guardian – all of which show Labour’s lead has dropped significantly (YouGov has it down to just 4 points apparently). I happily acknowledge that I may be about to be proved spectacularly wrong,…
How will the post conference polls look? Yesterday’s publication by Mori of a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s conference speech is a timely reminder of the polling power of the saturation media coverage that such an event provides. That survey had Labour 13% ahead – nearly double the 7% lead that the same pollster had found a couple of days later. The instant poll by YouGov after Brown’s speech came up with an 11% margin though that…
Marginals said to be “patchy and extremely tight” We are going to have to wait until this evening before we see the first post-Blackpool opinion poll and that should be from the YouGov panel on this evening’s Channel 4 News. But according to Steve Richards in the Independent the prospect of an early election has receded following the Tory conference and reaction to Cameron’s speech. He notes that Brown’s “inner circle is understood to have become more cautious about an…
Thank you Gord for such a great market This is not something I’ve done before but I was challenged here last week about my betting and I thought I would reproduce part of my trading details on the “Gordon weeks” betting market. What you are doing here is “buying and selling” the number of weeks that Gord’s premiership will last before the general election. As I reported here just a week ago I had taken a view that the Labour…
When should we get the first measured reactions? Everybody has their own views of the speech but the people that will matter most in the next day or so are those chosen by the polling organisations to take part in their surveys. How will they react? Will their opinions of the parties be any different from the recent polls? Will Labour still be in a commanding position to launch a successful election campaign? My view is that we will see…
The Tory leader, David Cameron, started his conference speech in Blackpool a few minutes ago. What do you think. Please paste post your views on this thread. Mike Smithson