Two thirds of Tories want a November election

Two thirds of Tories want a November election

Can Gord call it off without being damaged? There can be absolutely no doubt that if it had not been for the post-Blackpool polls this weekend would effectively have been the first phase of the general election campaign. So much was in place, a series of key announcements has been careful choreographed and a date with Gord had been pencilled into the Queen’s diary. The big question is how can Brown now pull back from that position without suffering too…

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PBC’s first 100,000 day

PBC’s first 100,000 day

Our site statistics have gone through the roof as speculation about a general election continues to mount. The above table shows the total number of page downloads and as can be seen yesterday we broke though the 100,000 mark for the first time ever. The number of unique visitors is about fifth to a quarter of the page downloads. Sky News tomorrow morning. The site will be featured on Sky New tomorrow from about 8.40am. They are sending a satellite…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

There’ll Be No Election This Year Apart from a brief wobble last week, I have always been sceptical about the prospects for an Autumn election. I shall now stick my neck out, and say there will be no election this year. There is no point in Gordon Brown calling an early election unless he can, at the very least, be sure of retaining Labour’s majority of 64. Should Labour be returned with a smaller majority, his authority will be weakened….

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How “certainty to vote” is behind the Tory bounce

How “certainty to vote” is behind the Tory bounce

And Lib Dems switch to the Tories – not Labour The boss of Populus, Andrew Cooper, has very kindly given me advanced sight of the detail from today’s poll in the Times and I reproduce part of it above. There are two main features:- A big disparity between the responses of Labour and Tory voters when it comes to their likelihood to vote and evidence that Labour is not picking up as many 2005 Lib Dem supporters as they had…

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Can Gord blank Dave out of the news again?

Can Gord blank Dave out of the news again?

Has Gord’s caution saved the day? Just two mornings ago, before David Cameron had made his big speech, I suggested that Brown could be “making a terrible mistake” over the build-up to a general election announcement. This is what I wrote: “All the thinking, apparently, has been based on opinion polls that have been taken in the most exceptional of circumstances. As many poll-watchers were saying in May and June it was not going to be possible to get a…

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ICM revised – it’s neck and neck

ICM revised – it’s neck and neck

Dave appears on the polling graphic for the first time The ICM figures have now been revised and the shares from the latest polls are CON 38%(+5): LAB 38% (-1): LD 16% (-4) My guess is that in the rush to get the figures out not all the final aspects had been checked. Now it has and these will be really pleasing figures for the Tories. The general election date betting markets have seen a lot of movement and the…

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It’s one lonely Gordon with ICM

It’s one lonely Gordon with ICM

Tories move to their highest share since March Polls are coming thick and fast tonight and the latest, from ICM for the Guardian, has the Tories on 38% within just one point of Labour. The shares compared with the last survey from the pollster are CON 38%(+5): LAB 39% (nc): LD 16% (-4) This is the best Tory share in an ICM poll since March – three months before Brown took over. Mike Smithson