Will Labour polling dampen the election speculation?

Will Labour polling dampen the election speculation?

Marginals said to be “patchy and extremely tight” We are going to have to wait until this evening before we see the first post-Blackpool opinion poll and that should be from the YouGov panel on this evening’s Channel 4 News. But according to Steve Richards in the Independent the prospect of an early election has receded following the Tory conference and reaction to Cameron’s speech. He notes that Brown’s “inner circle is understood to have become more cautious about an…

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Time to bet against an early election

Time to bet against an early election

Thank you Gord for such a great market This is not something I’ve done before but I was challenged here last week about my betting and I thought I would reproduce part of my trading details on the “Gordon weeks” betting market. What you are doing here is “buying and selling” the number of weeks that Gord’s premiership will last before the general election. As I reported here just a week ago I had taken a view that the Labour…

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But will it move the polls?

But will it move the polls?

When should we get the first measured reactions? Everybody has their own views of the speech but the people that will matter most in the next day or so are those chosen by the polling organisations to take part in their surveys. How will they react? Will their opinions of the parties be any different from the recent polls? Will Labour still be in a commanding position to launch a successful election campaign? My view is that we will see…

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Just revealed: Mori had Labour 13% ahead last week

Just revealed: Mori had Labour 13% ahead last week

Unpublished survey shows scale of Labour’s lead An Ipsos-Mori poll where the fieldwork finished last Wednesday and so took in a large part of reaction to the Labour conference and Brown’s speech has just been published on the firm’s website. It shows a margin for Labour of 13%. It is important to stress that this survey pre-dated the Mori poll that appeared in the Observer on Sunday that had Labour 7% ahead. What this newly published survey does show is…

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Could Gord be making a terrible mistake?

Could Gord be making a terrible mistake?

Should he have waited until he’d seen all the post-Blackpool polls? If we are to believe the Guardian this morning everything is now set for an announcement on Tuesday that there will be a general election on November 1st. A whole series of actions and other measures are being set in place to allow the time-table and it’s beginning to look like Europe in August 1914 when the momentum of activity would have made it almost impossible to stop the…

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Could this man be Tory leader by Xmas?

Could this man be Tory leader by Xmas?

Is Davis the person the party would turn to after Cameron? It used to be that the highlight of Tory conferences, aside from the leader’s speech, was the appearance of the person responsible for home affairs. Crime and the control of criminals are issues that touch a raw nerve with Tories and the party expects stout and robust leadership on the issue. This afternoon’s appearance by David Davis was even more poignant because if the party decided, as has become…

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Will this win LD voters back to Labour?

Will this win LD voters back to Labour?

Is this part of the election countdown? Most of the focus of Brown’s Iraq visit has been on it all being a smart diversionary tactic to draw attention away from the Tory conference in Blackpool. Well that might partially be the case but could it also be a clearing of the decks of negative Labour issues ahead of an early general election? A key group of voters that Labour strategists are concerned about are those who switched to the Lib…

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