And Lib Dems switch to the Tories – not Labour The boss of Populus, Andrew Cooper, has very kindly given me advanced sight of the detail from today’s poll in the Times and I reproduce part of it above. There are two main features:- A big disparity between the responses of Labour and Tory voters when it comes to their likelihood to vote and evidence that Labour is not picking up as many 2005 Lib Dem supporters as they had…
Has Gord’s caution saved the day? Just two mornings ago, before David Cameron had made his big speech, I suggested that Brown could be “making a terrible mistake” over the build-up to a general election announcement. This is what I wrote: “All the thinking, apparently, has been based on opinion polls that have been taken in the most exceptional of circumstances. As many poll-watchers were saying in May and June it was not going to be possible to get a…
Dave appears on the polling graphic for the first time The ICM figures have now been revised and the shares from the latest polls are CON 38%(+5): LAB 38% (-1): LD 16% (-4) My guess is that in the rush to get the figures out not all the final aspects had been checked. Now it has and these will be really pleasing figures for the Tories. The general election date betting markets have seen a lot of movement and the…
Tories move to their highest share since March Polls are coming thick and fast tonight and the latest, from ICM for the Guardian, has the Tories on 38% within just one point of Labour. The shares compared with the last survey from the pollster are CON 38%(+5): LAB 39% (nc): LD 16% (-4) This is the best Tory share in an ICM poll since March – three months before Brown took over. Mike Smithson
The Times pollster reports a margin of just 3% The second poll of the night, just out, is from Populus for the Times and has these figures compared with the last survey at the weekend – CON 36% (+5): LAB 39% (-2): LD 15% (-2). This and ICM, expected later, are probably the most significant survey of the nights because they do weight by past vote and does weight by the likelihood to vote. A margin of 3% starts to…
And three other polls are on the way The first of a spate of polls that will come overnight has just been announced by Channel 4 news. These are the figures compared with the last poll from the firm last Saturday – CON 36%(+4): LAB 40%(-3): LD 13%(-2) Of course this followed the massive coverage of Blackpool and the good reception to Cameron’s speech. Will it be sustained? I don’t know. Other polls coming up overnight are Populus in the…
All sorts of rumours are going round tonight about big poll changes following Cameron’s big speech yesterday and the Tory conference. Ben Brogan in the Mail reports this: “…there are three polls out later – YouGov for Channel Four, Populus in the Times and ICM in the Guardian – all of which show Labour’s lead has dropped significantly (YouGov has it down to just 4 points apparently). I happily acknowledge that I may be about to be proved spectacularly wrong,…
How will the post conference polls look? Yesterday’s publication by Mori of a poll taken in the immediate aftermath of Brown’s conference speech is a timely reminder of the polling power of the saturation media coverage that such an event provides. That survey had Labour 13% ahead – nearly double the 7% lead that the same pollster had found a couple of days later. The instant poll by YouGov after Brown’s speech came up with an 11% margin though that…