Was this the moment it all started to go wrong?

Was this the moment it all started to go wrong?

Why can’t Gordon “do” sincerity? The above screen-shot is from the weekend’s Andrew Marr interview and shows the expression on Brown’s face the moment he first started to explain why there was not going to be an election this year. Just imagine how the political scene would have looked this morning if Brown had taken a different approach and Alastair Darling’s pre-budget report had made no mention of the Tory and Lib Dem taxation ideas? Just imagine what the reaction…

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Could it be like this until 2010?

Could it be like this until 2010?

How can Brown deal with this sort of attack? I’ve been traveling and have yet to watch today’s PMQ confrontation between Dave and Gord. That treat is still to come and I can’t make a judgement. The critical thing though is how this will play on the bulletins and in the press and from what’s already been published Cameron appears to be coming out on top. He had the sound-bites so beloved by those who have to process news into…

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Will Gord pull the PMQ announcement trick?

Will Gord pull the PMQ announcement trick?

Has Dave worked out a way of dealing with Brown blanking him out? One of the ways that Brown sought to dominate the media coverage after his first PMQs in July was to make an announcement in answer to a question – thus diverting media attention away from his performance and that of David Cameron. So we saw the news on the casino re-think and cannabis come out in answers to friendly Labour MPs and there was fairly coverage of…

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Should you be a Labour buyer or Labour seller?

Should you be a Labour buyer or Labour seller?

How the papers are reporting the “Magpie Budget” As I’ve discussed here many times my main form of political betting is to “buy” and “sell” the number of seats that Labour will get at the next election. Because this is spread-betting you can realise your profits or cut your losses at any time. You can also operate without having to lock up any cash up by opening a credit account. The critical thing, if you want to end up in…

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Is copying the Tories smart politics?

Is copying the Tories smart politics?

Or does it make Labour look weak? So there we have it. Exactly eight days after the Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, announces his inheritance tax plan to the conference and Labour Alastair Darling follows suit with his own scheme. Would this have been in the Chancellor’s statement at all if the Tory plan had not given the party such a post-conference poll boost? Does it all look so obvious? Is it actually an admission that we’ve reached a stage where…

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Will 12% from Populus put the pressure on Ming?

Will 12% from Populus put the pressure on Ming?

Are the Lib Dems the big losers from the conference season? The regular monthly Populus poll for the Times is out this morning and the shares are, compared with the last survey from the firm last week CON 38%(+2): LAB 40%(+1): LD12%(-3). It is important to note that the fieldwork took place over three days, from Friday to Sunday, and all but 200 of the interviews had been carried out before news of Brown’s election retreat became known. The big…

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Baxter puts the Lib Dems on zero seats

Baxter puts the Lib Dems on zero seats

The spread betting markets are unmoved For what must almost certainly be the first time ever Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus is putting the Lib Dems on zero seats for the next general election. This is based on feeding his weighted average of recent polls into his commons seat calculator. The result appears above. So if you believe it there’s a fortune to be made on the spread betting markets. The latest Lib Dem Spreadfair prices are SELL 46.5 seats and…

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So how’s Brown’s fight-back going?

So how’s Brown’s fight-back going?

Did his comments about the polls sound convincing? The first stage of Brown’s fight-back started with his monthly press conference when, inevitably, he was pressured on the circumstances leading upto Saturday’s announcement. Later in the day he has the Iraq statement in the Commons followed by a meeting of the parliamentary Labour party. The big question, of course, is how is this going down with the public? Will Labour stem the flow to the Tories in the polls? The weekend…

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