Are the Lib Dems the big losers from the conference season? The regular monthly Populus poll for the Times is out this morning and the shares are, compared with the last survey from the firm last week CON 38%(+2): LAB 40%(+1): LD12%(-3). It is important to note that the fieldwork took place over three days, from Friday to Sunday, and all but 200 of the interviews had been carried out before news of Brown’s election retreat became known. The big…
The spread betting markets are unmoved For what must almost certainly be the first time ever Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus is putting the Lib Dems on zero seats for the next general election. This is based on feeding his weighted average of recent polls into his commons seat calculator. The result appears above. So if you believe it there’s a fortune to be made on the spread betting markets. The latest Lib Dem Spreadfair prices are SELL 46.5 seats and…
Did his comments about the polls sound convincing? The first stage of Brown’s fight-back started with his monthly press conference when, inevitably, he was pressured on the circumstances leading upto Saturday’s announcement. Later in the day he has the Iraq statement in the Commons followed by a meeting of the parliamentary Labour party. The big question, of course, is how is this going down with the public? Will Labour stem the flow to the Tories in the polls? The weekend…
Can he mount an effective fight-back from the election retreat? One of the things that we don’t really know about Gord is how he’ll respond when he is under fire. For almost throughout his career he has managed to avoid public situations where he’s faced a severe grilling. During his time at the Treasury Brown always stood back and let members of his team put themselves forward when the difficult issues, like the level of fraud in the tax credit…
Could Henley become a tasty Lib Dem by election prospect? One aspect of Gord’s non-election decision is that Boris Johnson won’t be put into a difficult position over whether to stick as MP for Henley or not. For if there had been an election and he had not stood he could have found himself out of front-line politics if he then went on to fail in the mayoral race. Last week he was quizzed repeatedly about the dilemma and hinted…
Who is going to get the blame? Masses and masses of coverage in the papers this morning that won’t make comfortable reading at Number 10. Having skimmed most of them on the net the piece that seems the most wounding is from the usually loyal Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer. The headline says it all “They will call him Bottler Brown and it is going to hurt”. He writes: “This was not got up by the media. It was a…
YouGov reports a Tory lead of 3% In a most staggering turnaround the internet pollster which restricts its surveys to members of its polling panel, YouGov has these shares in its latest poll. CON 41% (+5): LAB 38% (-2): LD 11% (-2). The comparisons are with the last YouGov poll where the fieldwork finished only two days ago. Only a week ago the pollster had the Tories 11% behind with C32-L43-LD15. The changes for each party are just amazing. Mike…
Just broadcast on BBC News 24. No further details at the moment. UPDATE – this is how it is being reported on the paper’s website:- GORDON Brown will LOSE his majority and be forced to battle for control of a hung parliament if he decides to call a snap General Election according to an exclusive poll in tomorrow’s News of the World. The ICM poll of the key marginal constituencies that will decide whether he stays in power reveals he…