YouGov reports a Tory lead of 3% In a most staggering turnaround the internet pollster which restricts its surveys to members of its polling panel, YouGov has these shares in its latest poll. CON 41% (+5): LAB 38% (-2): LD 11% (-2). The comparisons are with the last YouGov poll where the fieldwork finished only two days ago. Only a week ago the pollster had the Tories 11% behind with C32-L43-LD15. The changes for each party are just amazing. Mike…
Just broadcast on BBC News 24. No further details at the moment. UPDATE – this is how it is being reported on the paper’s website:- GORDON Brown will LOSE his majority and be forced to battle for control of a hung parliament if he decides to call a snap General Election according to an exclusive poll in tomorrow’s News of the World. The ICM poll of the key marginal constituencies that will decide whether he stays in power reveals he…
Markets move sharply after the reports from Downing Street With the dramatic news this afternoon that a November is off there’s been a lot of activity on the various general election betting markets. In addition there was a report by Nick Robinson on the BBC that a poll of marginals would show that Labour could lose power. There are no details on that but it has forced the Labour spreads right down on the spread markets. The latest from Spreadfair…
Was it the IHT changes or the speech that prompted the Tory bounce? There’s been a lot of commentary about what prompted the Tory polling surge with Labour saying it was the inheritance tax proposals that were the driving force. This appears to be just spin – and is not supported by the detailed data. The above is from yesterday’s Populus poll in the Times and records how voting intentions changed between those questioned before Cameron’s speech on Wednesday afternoon…
Can Gord call it off without being damaged? There can be absolutely no doubt that if it had not been for the post-Blackpool polls this weekend would effectively have been the first phase of the general election campaign. So much was in place, a series of key announcements has been careful choreographed and a date with Gord had been pencilled into the Queen’s diary. The big question is how can Brown now pull back from that position without suffering too…
Our site statistics have gone through the roof as speculation about a general election continues to mount. The above table shows the total number of page downloads and as can be seen yesterday we broke though the 100,000 mark for the first time ever. The number of unique visitors is about fifth to a quarter of the page downloads. Sky News tomorrow morning. The site will be featured on Sky New tomorrow from about 8.40am. They are sending a satellite…
There’ll Be No Election This Year Apart from a brief wobble last week, I have always been sceptical about the prospects for an Autumn election. I shall now stick my neck out, and say there will be no election this year. There is no point in Gordon Brown calling an early election unless he can, at the very least, be sure of retaining Labour’s majority of 64. Should Labour be returned with a smaller majority, his authority will be weakened….
Thanks to “pbr streetgang” for the tip. Mike Smithson