Does that sound like a value bet? With the pressure on Gord to call a referendum the EU Treaty likely to intensify this week the bookmaker, Victor Chandler, is now accepting bets on whether or not he will go back on his refusal. The firm have priced up a referendum happening before the end of next year at 9/2. It is 1/8 that the UK ratifies the treaty without it being put to a public vote. My guess is that…
Will this put the election retreat back on the agenda? The main lead in the Guardian this morning confirms how serious Labour was about going to the country in late October or early November and could provide further ammunition for the Tories as they seek to attack Brown. For according to the paper “nearly a million pounds” was spent in the run-up compared with just £200,000 by the Tories. The report notes that three million letters had been printed and…
Is his former special advisor out of control? After all the controversy over the role of schools secretary, Ed Balls in hyping up the early election date speculation there’s an intriguing account of some of the goings on between Number 10 and Number 11 during the final year of Tony Blair. It comes in a serialisation of a new biography of Blair by Dr Anthony Seldon the first part of which is published in the Sir Paul Dacre’s “Mail on…
Is party funding about to become the next battle-ground? This is Michael Ashcroft who in this year’s Sunday Times Rich List was placed in position 87 with an estimated wealth of £800m. He’s a major donor to the Tory party and before the 2005 general election, as was reported here, he hand-picked a group of Tory candidates in marginal constituencies and then was responsible for providing extra attention and funding to help them with their campaigns. This morning he is…
How will the polls be affected by a LD resurgence We have not had any national polls since the dramatic announcement by Ming Campbell but my guess is that when we do we’ll see the third party increase its shares from the terrible lows that it has experienced in recent weeks. For one thing that Ming’s resignation has done has been to get his party onto the bulletins once again – and usually the more the Lib Dems are in…
Hi all, For the first time for about six months, we’re having some problems with slow database access. In particular, attempts to post comments, or stories are very slow. I’m working on the problem and hope to have a solution soon. Thanks, Robert
The State of the Parties The last three months’ local by-elections have been the worst, in terms of seat losses, that the Conservatives have suffered for some time. Over that period, the Conservatives have made a net loss of eight seats, Labour a net gain of six, and the Liberal Democrats a net gain of two. However, analysis of changes in each party’s share of the vote suggests that the Conservatives still enjoy a substantial lead over the other two…
What are we to make of today’s appointments? With Nick Clegg having now formally put his hat into the ring for the Lib Dem leadership Team Huhne has been in touch to tell me of key appointments that their man is making to his campaign. And they are making great play of the fact the today’s high-level recruits, Dick Newby and Anna Werrin, were part of Charles Kennedy’s inner circle. Kennedy himself has almost ruled himself out and will probably…