..and a boost for Huhne in his bid for the Lib Dem leadership After the longest period without a national voting intention poll since August 2006 there’s the regular survey from the YouGov panel in the Daily Telegraph this morning which shows no change on the last poll from the firm almost two weeks ago. The headline figures are CON 41% (nc): LAB 38% (nc): LD 11% (nc) What we don’t have from YouGov is any adjustment for likelihood to…
Does a leadership election hone up the candidates’ campaigning skills? Just looking back at how the Lib Dem hopefuls, Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne, performed on Sunday’s Andrew Marr show it struck me what a good training ground for a general election running for the leader of your party is. The normal political dialogue outside election times does not provide the opportunities for the kind of exposure and probing that a leadership election demands and those who have been through…
Will a U-turn help Gord or not? An issue on which the Lib Dems have been making the running, the plan to take away 5% of school budget surpluses, was used by David Cameron at PMQs yesterday for his first line of attack against Gordon Brown. The Tory leader said that it was “unjust, an ill-conceived idea” which undermines governors’ authority. This morning the Independent carries a report, part of which is reproduced above, that the Prime Minister is planning…
But does the Guardian know who he is? The Jack W mystery is now being featured on the Guardian web-site. What a tribute to him and his role here over the past three years. I would love to share the secret with everybody but I did make a promise to Jack. Mike Smithson
Is there scope for exploiting Tory splits on the EU? This lunchtime we’ll see the third PMQ clash between Brown and Cameron since the election plan was ditched. Dave won the first encounter in October emphatically and most observers gave it to him last week on points. What will happen today? Could this be the moment that Gord hits back? Could he start to turn the EU referendum argument back against the Tory leader by pointing to the demands from…
The changing view of punters since May 2005 The chart shows the changing fortunes of the two main parties since last time on the main general general election market – who will win most seats. The betting prices are represented as an implied probability rather than the actual odds because it shows trends better. This is not about whether the Tories or Labour win an absolute majority but on which of them finishes up with the most seats. This is…
Could there be a repeat of the 2006 private polling farce? Word has reached me that there is a possibility that the internet pollster, YouGov might be commissioned to carry out a survey of Lib Dem members on the Clegg-Huhne contest. Although previous YouGov surveys of Lib Dem and Labour members have achieved nothing like the accuracy of the firm’s Tory leadership polls they could provide a reasonable pointer to those planning to bet. Would they show that Clegg is…
Who’ll be up and who’ll be down in the next polling round? In the first 13 days of October polls there were nine separate national polls showing general election voting intentions. In the second 13 days it looks as if we will have had none and the signs are that there won’t be anything until the weekend at the earliest. Part of the problem is that many newspapers spent up their polling budgets in that intense period as all the…