Is the Sun right to call it “Labour’s Black Monday”? There’s a six letter word that figures prominently in a number of the papers this morning that could be very dangerous for Labour and Gordon. It’s “SLEAZE” – a description that in the 1992-1997 Tory government seemed to get attached to almost everything. It became almost a short-hand and was very difficult for the party to cast off. In fact it’s probably taken it a decade and a half to…
Labour drop to an amazing 27% On the day that Labour’s general secretary had to resign over donation handling news is coming through of another terrible polling blow to Brown and his party. According to Iain Dale the November survey by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent has these figures with comparisons on a month ago – CON 40% (-1): LAB 27% (-6): LD 18% (+2) Needless to say this is the biggest Tory lead that’s been recorded by ComRes ever. Back…
What’s going to happen in the end month poll rush? It’s been frustrating weekend for Lib Dem poll watchers keen to see if their recovery is continuing. First we had the confusion in the Guardian on Saturday over the size of their share. Then we had yesterday’s BPIX poll in the MoS which failed to mention the Lib Dem total. I haven’t been able to solve the latter but the boss of ICM, Nick Sparrow, has emailed me about his…
Is it worth betting that Labour will have another leader? It’s Monday and that means it’s the day of the Guardian column of Jackie Ashley – who for a long time has been one of Brown’s most enthusiastic media cheer leaders. And this morning, as she tries to assess the political damage that Gordon has suffered in the past few weeks, she touches on what has not really been debated – could he go BEFORE the general election? Ashley writes:“..For…
Why I’m scaling back on my “Tory buy” position As far as I can see there is only one voting intention poll this morning and that is from the non-British Polling Council registered BPIX in the Mail on Sunday Frustratingly the only figures available online are a CON-LAB split of 40%-35% with no information about the Lib Dems. The pollster found there was a 37%-37% split when it asked how respondents would vote if Tony Blair was still Labour leader….
Why is there confusion at the Guardian over the Lib Dem total? The main lead in the Guardian this morning is its new ICM poll which shows huge changes on the last survey from the pollster just under a fortnight ago. These are the shares with comparisons on that survey – CON 37% (-6): LAB 31% (-4): LD 21/23% (+6/8) The reason why I am quoting two figures for the Lib Dems is that the story in the Guardian says…
Focus on Lancashire I’ve commented several times that while a strong performance for the Conservatives in Southern England would be sufficient to deprive Labour of their majority, there is no chance of the Conservatives winning an overall majority without regaining a lot of ground in the North of England, something they conspicuously failed to do in 2005. Nowhere is that more true than in Lancashire, a key battleground for decades between the Conservatives and Labour. When the new boundary changes…
Sky News commissioning Huhne-Clegg poll Adam Boulton has emailed me to say that Sky News has commissioned a YouGov Poll of party members on the LibDem Leadership race. This will be carried out next week and they will have the results to make available ion the evening of Saturday 1st December. Given that by then a large proportion of members are likely to have voted then at least part of it will be akin to an exit poll. My guess…