YouGov, like ICM, shows a big Labour deficit amongst the elderly On Tuesday I came under attack when I observed that the latest ICM poll had showed a very sharp difference in Tory lead amongst the 65+ age group. True – there is always a danger when you focus on sub-sets, like I was doing, that the picture could be be distorted. But when the same trend is seen across a number of surveys you can be more confident about…
YouGov’s Tory lead moves from three to six per cent The second national voting intention survey since the Queen’s Speech has shown another biggish drop in the Labour share. These are the figures with comparisons on the last surveys from the pollster more than three weeks ago – CON 41% (nc): LAB 35% (-3): LD 13% (+2). This latest poll, for tomorrow’s Sunday Times means that Gordon Brown’s Labour has moved from an 11% margin to a 6% deficit in…
Is there some “funny trading” taking place? With ballot packs in the Lib Dem leadership race due to go out early next week it’s likely that a significant proportion of the 65,000 members entitled to vote will have made their decisions and popped their envelopes back in the post by next weekend. So Thursday’s Huhne-Clegg debate in the special edition of Question Time came at a critical moment and might be highly influential – and the general view from Lib…
A review of the key general election London seats London sees extensive boundary changes at the next election, which are neutral for the Conservatives, Labour, and Respect, while costing the Liberal Democrats one seat, Brent East, which is abolished. London loses one seat, having 73 in total. The Conservative seat of Hornchurch is abolished, while boundary changes convert Croydon Central and Hammersmith & Fulham (now Hammersmith) into Labour seats. Two new seats are created, Ealing Central & Acton, and Fulham…
UPDATE – YouGov puts him 6% behind? [UPDATE I wrote this article before getting news of a new YouGov poll on the mayor race which has Ken leading Boris 45-39% on first preferences and 53-47% after second. This is probably better than the Tories would have expected at this stage and clearly everything will depend on turnout levels] The Tories have not got a good record when it has come to finding someone suitable to fight Britain’s biggest election –…
Watch Chris and Nick do what Gordon never had to One thing that having contested leadership elections means, Parliamentary Labour Party members please note, is that the rivals get invited onto Question Time for a special leadership debate. This can be a defining moment of a campaign and both Huhne and Clegg will have been training hard to ensure that they come over best. For Huhne, the betting outsider and the man who has still not been forgiven by the…
Should policy be about more than just wrong-footing Dave? For me the defining image of the Brown premiership was the look on his face (above) while the chancellor, Alistair Darling, was announcing Labour’s inheritance tax plan just eight days after the Tories had made this the centre-piece of their conference. Defining because whether this had been planned or not Brown was taking great pleasure at thwarting what the polls suggested had been an electorally popular initiative. Defining also because this…
Changes planned for the New Year After trying to run the site and cope with demanding jobs for nearly four years I am leaving my post at the Open University at Christmas so I can focus much more on Politicalbetting. This is a big change for me but it has become inevitable because trying to do both has become almost impossible. This has been accentuated by the intensity of the Brown-Cameron battle, the Lib Dem leadership changes, all the facets…