Why are older people giving up on Gordon?

Why are older people giving up on Gordon?

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    YouGov, like ICM, shows a big Labour deficit amongst the elderly

On Tuesday I came under attack when I observed that the latest ICM poll had showed a very sharp difference in Tory lead amongst the 65+ age group. True – there is always a danger when you focus on sub-sets, like I was doing, that the picture could be be distorted. But when the same trend is seen across a number of surveys you can be more confident about coming to a conclusion.

One of the great things about the Sunday Times is that when it commissions a poll then the detailed data is made available straight away. So after the news last night of the headline figures from the new poll I am able this morning to reproduce the table above and carry out the same analysis.

YouGov break down their categories differently from ICM and show figures for those aged 55+. As can be seen it is these people where the biggest CON-LAB gap exists. A month ago the Sunday Times YouGov survey had a 46% to 33% split amongst the older group – that is now 46% to 28%.

Back in September when Labour had an 11% overall YouGov margin the party enjoyed a two point lead with the older respondents.

Unlike the other firms YouGov makes no adjustment for likelihood to vote – but all the evidence is that the older you are the more likely it is that you will turnout.

Mike Smithson

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