Is he really the man the Democrats fear most? It was back in mid-August that we first looked at the chances of GOP contender and former Governor of Arkansas, Mick Huckabee. At the time the unique element in his background was that he was born and brought up in the same small town as Bill Clinton. Since then Huckabee, whose dramatic slimming story (see picture), has endeared him to many in the most obese country in the world, has gone…
Could this point to disproportionate Labour losses in the General Election? A main reason why my preferred Westminster general election spread bet is on the number of Labour, rather than Conservative, seats is what might happen north of the border where the party could have several more seats at risk than the conventional GB-based seat calculators are suggesting. This is reinforced by a new YouGov poll on voting intention for the Scottish parliament which suggests that there has been a…
Could it be closer than YouGov was suggesting? Chris Huhne’s campaign team have released details of a survey by an independent third party organisation which, they say, suggests a late surge in support of their man. The data purports to show that there’s been a big reduction in the number of undecided voters has fallen dramatically over the past ten days (from 38.4% to 17.5%) and that these members have plumped overwhelmingly for the older contender. These are the figures:…
Is performing well in the Commons the critical element? The above tables are from a YouGov poll of 300 politics academics in UK universities which was prepared for the Political Studies Association. First those questioned were asked to choose a maximum of five from a list of qualities should “matter most if a prime minister is to be successfulâ€. Then they were asked to choose from the same list which of the qualities “matter most†IN PRACTICE to those seeking…
Does the odds-on favourite need to do more than look good? With only nine to to go before voting ends in the Lib Dem leadership there’s been a lot of questioning in the Lib Dem blogsphere over whether the odds-on and strong polling favourite, Nick Clegg is the right choice. He is also the candidate on whom I have bet £900. One factor that has sparked off the concern was his lacklustre performance on Tuesday’s Today Programme on Radio 4….
Will this have a political impact or not? The big news this lunchtime is that the country’s top anti-terror cop, Andy Hayman has resigned, blaming the pressures of the job and “a series of leaks and unfounded accusations”. This follows criticism of him in the Stockwell tube shooting inquiry as well as a series of leaks about his private life. In itself this should not damage the government or the Prime Minister. But one resignation after another, set against a…
Police are called in to find the “mole” With the donations row continue to dominate politics both north and south of the border there’s a new development in the Scotsman this morning – a suggestion that someone inside the party’s Scottish HQ is leaking information about donations. According to the paper’s main lead “..There is fury among senior Labour figures that someone with access to confidential information has been leaking it to the press and causing massive damage to the…
How “certainty to vote” is driving the polls The above table has been reproduced from the full data set from yesterday’s ICM survey for the News of the World which showed that Labour was 11% behind. This highlights how those surveyed responded when asked how likely, on a scale of 1-10, it was that they would vote. The columns show how supporters of the various parties responded and also included is a breakdown based on what people said they did…