Could this point to disproportionate Labour losses in the General Election?
A main reason why my preferred Westminster general election spread bet is on the number of Labour, rather than Conservative, seats is what might happen north of the border where the party could have several more seats at risk than the conventional GB-based seat calculators are suggesting.
This is reinforced by a new YouGov poll on voting intention for the Scottish parliament which suggests that there has been a sharp move to the SNP. This has the following with changes on what happened at the Scottish elections in May.
Constituency vote SNP: 40%(+7): LAB: 29%(-3): LD 13% (-3): CON 12% (-5)
Regional list SNP: 34% (+3): LAB: 26% (-3): CON 13% (-1): LD 13% (+2): GRN 9% (+5)
The very high Green vote share is similar to that which the pollster reported before the May elections and which turned out to be an over-statement.
From what’s available online there does not seem to have been a Westminster voting intention but it is reasonable to assume that the SNP is doing well – which could put some Labour seats in danger.
Given the very different political environment in Scotland it would be very helpful if the General Election seat predictors could find a way of separating off the country when it comes to working out the impact of swings. Thus if you put the latest ICM poll into Martin Baxter’s calculator you’ll see a Tory gain from the SNP being reported. This is simply not going to happen.