The competition that moved the markets in 2006 So who will be the successor to Ming? With voting closing on Saturday, we’ll know the identity of the new leader by early next week – but how good are you at predicting the outcome? Simply predict who the new leader will be and their percentage share of the valid votes to up to two decimal places. Scoring: your score will be the difference between your prediction and the actual result for…
It’s all change for my spread betting positions Having just read many comments in the previous thread, watched on TV the excruciating embarrassment of Gord’s late arrival in Lisbon for his solo treaty signing, and had a half hour phone conversation with a long-standing friend who is a Labour loyalist and former constituency chair the question arises as to whether today might be a turning point. For the message that’s coming through loud and clear is that Downing Street’s strategy…
Will the Obama drug smear rebound on Clinton? There’s one dominant theme that emerges whenever Hillary’s chances in the Democratic race are being assessed – the so-called “legendary brilliance of the Clinton machine”. But is it really up to that much? Are we being sold a line in order that nothing should impede the view that Hillary’s eventual success is inevitable? Certainly the events of the past day or so do little to inspire confidence. The big news items in…
Can review announcements continue at a weekly rate in 2008? The above story from the Westminster correspondent of the Bloomberg news agency focuses attention on a growing practice of the Brown government that could develop into an issue – the practice whereby almost any challenge that they face is met by the announcement of a review. The journalist, Robert Hutton, is now keeping a tally which, as of this week, has reached 31 since Gord and his gang took over…
How a 1% Labour lead in the economy becomes a 4% deficit Much of yesterday’s coverage of the December Populus poll in the Times focuses on the fact that Brown-Balls’ party still has a lead on the economy even if only of just one per cent Yet were we getting a proper picture in the papers because, as has been noted here before, findings like this include the views of those who have little or no intention of voting –…
CON 42%: (+1), LAB 35% (+3), LD 14% (-3) The massive face-to-face monthly survey by Ipsos-MORI involving a sample of 1859 has just been published. The changes above show the variations on the the firm’s November telephone poll where the sample was only about half the size. The firm’s latest Political Monitor shows the Conservatives with a 7-point lead and also that David Cameron has the best net satisfaction rating (+6) of any Conservative leader since John Major won the…
Morus considers the runners and riders in the betting market Early in 2007, shortly before his 75th birthday as required, Cormac Murphy-O’Connor, the Cardinal-Archbishop of Westminster, tendered his resignation to Pope Benedict XVI. The response, whilst not unexpected, was not as warm as he might have hoped – he was asked to stay on until the Pope chooses otherwise. It is expected that His Holiness will indicate his preference for a change at Westminster Cathedral within the next 12 months….
Times poll has Con 40 (+4), Lab 32 (-5), LD 16 (0) A Populus poll in the Times today confirms that the Conservatives are still holding a significant lead over Labour, with an 8-point advantage. Fieldwork for the poll was carried out over the weekend. The poll also shows that the big two parties are now level pegging on the economy, with Labour a single point ahead, while the Conservatives also have a 4-point lead on the taxes/public spending issue….