Lib Dem Leadership Prediction Competition

Lib Dem Leadership Prediction Competition


    The competition that moved the markets in 2006

So who will be the successor to Ming? With voting closing on Saturday, we’ll know the identity of the new leader by early next week – but how good are you at predicting the outcome?

Simply predict who the new leader will be and their percentage share of the valid votes to up to two decimal places.

Scoring: your score will be the difference between your prediction and the actual result for your predicted winning candidate. If you have predicted the wrong winner, a further ten penalty points will be added to your score. The competition winner will be the player with the lowest score.

There is no tie-breaker, so in the event of a tie, the player whose entry arrived earlier will be deemed the winner. Note that the results will be calculated to more than two decimal places if necessary in order to split players. As usual, the “Smithson Doctrine” will apply and the Competition Organiser’s decision will be final in the event of any dispute.

Entries close Saturday at 3pm.

There are two ways to enter:

1. Make your prediction in the thread below

2. If you wish to cast a “secret ballot”, email your entry to

Thanks for entering and good luck with your predictions.

Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”

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