There’s been quite a lot of activity on the US election this morning and the main development has been a switch of favourites for the Democratic nomination on Intrade – the Irish based exchange which is focused very much on the US market. Intrade’s prices are presented on a scale of 0-100. At 1420 the last trades on the market were Obama 51 and Clinton 48. In the UK the Betfair price has tightened considerably on Obama and has eased…
The betting markets stick with Hillary – just The UK national dailies that used to be called “the broadsheets” get their first chance this morning to dissect Thursday night’s events in Iowa and they devote page after page to the outcome. If there is any UK political news about it’s hard to find and clearly there’s going to be a high level of interest until well after the New Hampshire outcome on Tuesday night. Whatever the results in the “granite…
Focus on the South West The counties of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, and Avon will generate some of the most interesting contests at the next election. This is because each of the three main parties is well-represented in this region, and because so many of the seats are marginals. Unusually, there is considerable support for UKIP here, who saved their deposit in 15 out of 38 seats in 2005. In 2005, the Liberal Democrats achieved pole position here, with 15…
It’s going to be hard for Hillary to get back into this It was on May 27th 2005 that I first suggested on the site that the then relatively unknown junior senator from Illinois was a good bet for the 2008 White House Race. At the time you could have got 50/1 on him going all the way and I know that many site visitors did place bets. Those odds have shrunk to 7/2 this morning after his victory in…
Huckabee has been called winner of GOP caucus Networks call Democrat contest for Obama Please continue your comments here to ease server pressure. Thanks Double Carpet
So who’s going to do best out of tonight’s caucuses? After months of fundraising, debates, speculation, and poll-watching, the moment has finally arrived, and the Iowa caucuses, the first time that people actually get to vote on the merits of the rival candidates, are here. The caucuses kick off at 1am UK time and C-Span’s streaming coverage will start at midnight (7pm ET). The Betfair Iowa markets are now “in-play” and have Obama and Huckabee as strong odds-on favourites to…
A look ahead to the year in politics Later today on PBC: the Iowa caucuses It can often be foolhardy to predict the year ahead in public, as one’s predictions can often look ridiculous by the end of the year – or if you’re lucky, extraordinarily prescient. With that in mind, a few thoughts on 2008, for the UK, USA, and the rest of the world. UK My “long view” is that May 2010 will be the election date, and…
The Lib Dem’s Paddick is down at just 7% A new poll by YouGov for for ITV’s London Tonight puts Ken on 45 per cent, just one point above Boris with the Lib-Dem candidate Brian Paddick trailing on seven per cent in what looks set to be the biggest domestic battle during 2008. If the Tories managed to unseat Livingston it would be a major political upset and a big set-back for Brown. It will no doubt be recalled that…