The betting markets stick with Hillary – just
The UK national dailies that used to be called “the broadsheets” get their first chance this morning to dissect Thursday night’s events in Iowa and they devote page after page to the outcome.
If there is any UK political news about it’s hard to find and clearly there’s going to be a high level of interest until well after the New Hampshire outcome on Tuesday night. Whatever the results in the “granite state” the US primaries look set to overshadow domestic developments. Nick Clegg’s first PMQ performance as Lib Dem leader is hardly going to bump a “Obama moves firmly into pole position” or a “Hillary come-back” story off the front pages or in the bulletins.
The one UK move that looks set to get some more attention is likely to be the first national opinion poll of 2008 – expected to be the Populus January survey in the Times on Tuesday.
Across the Atlantic commentators are waiting for the first post-Iowa polls on both the Democratic and GOP battles for the nomination. If the Democratic ones show an Obama boost that could well be a key factor in Tuesday’s voting in New Hampshire. Mike Huckabee’s win for the Republicans in Iowa is getting big coverage and looks set to push him up in the GOP surveys.
What will be interesting are the “head-to-heads” – where polling respondents are asked to rate prospective Democrat and GOP candidates against each other. If Obama is doing markedly better then Hillary that could be make the long-standing front-runner’s task even harder.
There’s still a long way to and the Betfair favourite for the Democrats continues to be Clinton at 0.87/1 compared with Obama’s 1.26/1. John McCain has now edged Giuliani out of his favourite slot in the Republican betting.
The UK betting is marginally more pro-Hillary than the IEM political futures exchange in the US and the US-focussed Irish betting exchange, Intrade. Bother have it at about 50% Clinton to 45% Obama
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