It’s showtime in Iowa

It’s showtime in Iowa

So who’s going to do best out of tonight’s caucuses?

After months of fundraising, debates, speculation, and poll-watching, the moment has finally arrived, and the Iowa caucuses, the first time that people actually get to vote on the merits of the rival candidates, are here. The caucuses kick off at 1am UK time and C-Span’s streaming coverage will start at midnight (7pm ET).

The Betfair Iowa markets are now “in-play” and have Obama and Huckabee as strong odds-on favourites to win their party contests. There has also been significant trading on the main nominee markets, with Hillary drifting to 1.61 (Obama now at 2.82), while the GOP has a virtual three-way tie, with with a recently-strengthening McCain just in front at 3.95, Rudy at 4, and Romney at 4.1, with Huckabee available at 7.

An Obama win would arguably make New Hampshire virtually a “must-win” for Hillary, while if Huckabee can see off Romney in Iowa, this is good news for McCain in NH and also for Giuliani who will not want to see Romney getting too much momentum before the end of January.

As tonight’s coverage unfolds, the following sites may also prove useful:

Real Clear Politics


Google results map

Any more weblinks carrying live results etc would be welcomed (does anyone know if the official results are posted by the parties anywhere?), plus any rumours, results as they arrive and moves on the markets. Posts from the US or even Iowa itself would be extremely useful.

Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”

Guest Editor

Mike Smithson returns tomorrow

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