Labour’s ICM deficit moves up to 5%

Labour’s ICM deficit moves up to 5%

Has the Conway business actually helped Dave? A new ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph tomorrow has the following shares with changes on the last published survey from the pollster – CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (-3): LD 21% (+1) These numbers will certainly ease Tory jitters and deflate the bubble of expectation amongst Labour supporters that followed yesterday’s MORI poll showing the party with a one point lead. All these changes, it should be said, are within the margin…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot…on Saturday

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot…on Saturday

What if There Were a By-Election in Old Bexley and Sidcup? Unlike Rod Crosby, I don’t anticipate a by-election in this seat. However, it’s worth giving some thought to what would happen if Derek Conway were to step down, and a by-election called. The seat itself is a mighty Conservative stronghold. Conway had a majority of nearly 10,000 over Labour in 2005. In the local elections of 2006, the Conservatives won all 24 council seats in the constituency, and took…

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Will Gord try to undermine Tony’s Euro bid?

Will Gord try to undermine Tony’s Euro bid?

Is he worth 2/1 to become President of Europe? When either one of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or John McCain is formally installed as President of the United States at noon on January 20th 2009 will one of their first meetings be with the new President of Europe, one Tony Blair and former resident of Number 10 Downing Street? For one of the most intriguing political battles during the next eleven months will be who gets the newly enhanced role…

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It’s back to a smiling Gordon with Ipsos-Mori

It’s back to a smiling Gordon with Ipsos-Mori

Is Gord’s party really doing better than in 2005? The results of Ipsos-Mori January face to face survey of more than 2000 people are just out and give Labour a one point lead – a huge change on the last survey by the pollster just three weeks ago. Unlike this survey the earlier poll was by phone. These are the latest shares with comparisons on the earlier survey CON 37% (-5): LAB 38% (+6): LD 16% (+1). The fieldwork took…

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Will it be best for the Dems if it’s resolved quickly?

Will it be best for the Dems if it’s resolved quickly?

Will the Republicans benefit by deciding first? The final clause of the concluding paragraph of the main leader in the Independent this morning reflects a sentiment that I guess a lot of site visitors totally agree with. Looking forward to next week the paper notes: On Tuesday, these two thrilling contests go nationwide. We hanker after a McCain-Obama match in November, but our more immediate interest – and surely that of US voters – is in any result that keeps…

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Do you think Gordon will see this as a threat?

Do you think Gordon will see this as a threat?

What does Labour do now the Tories are not seen “the nasty party”? The front page of this morning’s Guardian is dominated by a report that groups of Labour modernisers, including cabinet minsters, are planning to tell Brown to offer a more radical reform programme to help beat off the Tory threat in the centre ground. Linked to a paper from the Progress thinktank the group is arguing that the political landscape has changed, that the opposition is perceived differently…

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Now Hillary’s Wal-Mart past get’s dragged up

Now Hillary’s Wal-Mart past get’s dragged up

Could this undermine union support? With just five days to go to Super Tuesday some video tapes of Hillary in her role as a director of Wal-Mart in the late 80s and early 90s have “emerged” and are being given prominent coverage by ABC News. Funny that the tapes being discovered now – anybody would think someone was planning a hatchet job. Hillary’s problem is that the company has built up a reputation for being fiercely anti-union going to great…

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Does Obama need a longer race?

Does Obama need a longer race?

How will the GOP’s likely choice affect the Democratic race? With the Republican looking set to select John McCain as their nominee for November’s election there will be increasing focus on the Obama-Clinton battle? Will we get a clear picture after next Tuesday’s mass of primaries and caucuses or could this be spun out over many months? David Broder of the Washington Post looks at the dynamics this morning and suggests that the longer the Democrats take to decide the…

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