Has the Conway business actually helped Dave?

A new ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph tomorrow has the following shares with changes on the last published survey from the pollster – CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (-3): LD 21% (+1)

These numbers will certainly ease Tory jitters and deflate the bubble of expectation amongst Labour supporters that followed yesterday’s MORI poll showing the party with a one point lead. All these changes, it should be said, are within the margin of error.

Although we don’t know when the the fieldwork took place it is more than likely that it happened after the Derek Conway story broke.

All this adds weight to my ongoing theory about the Tories and the polls – the party does better when its leader is in the news even if the matter being looked at is not, on the face of it, good news for the party. Thus we a saw poll boost for Cameron in May 2007 when the grammar school row broke.

Cameron has been crowded out by so many other stories for weeks which I believe was a factor behind the trend of decline that we have seen. Thus on Northern Rock the party had nothing to say and then the Hain business dominated the headline.

On the betting front it is getting much more complicated because these vote shares would give Labour a lead in seats in a hung parliament situation.

Mike Smithson