Are these the numbers that will swing it?

Are these the numbers that will swing it?

For US election junkies it’s another late night As we go into another weekend of frenzied activity in the race for the White House the above are the latest “head-to-head” polling figures from Real Clear Politics comparing how Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton would fare facing up to the Republican John McCain in a general election. The numbers are good for the junior senator from Illinois but still Hillary is leading when Democratic-leaning voters are asked who they would favour….

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Livingstone versus Johnson Round Up. This is turning out to be pretty vicious contest. Ken Livingstone’s supporters are portraying Boris Johnson as alternatively, a racist, gay-bashing, bigot, or a bumbling upper-class twit. Boris Johnson’s supporters (particularly in the media) portray Ken Livingstone as running a corrupt, partisan, regime at City Hall, while pandering to the most hardline elements of the Capital’s Muslim population. It is all highly entertaining, and reminiscent of some of the most bitter political battles one sees…

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How will Lib Dem activists view this?

How will Lib Dem activists view this?

How big a risk is Nick Clegg taking? You don’t have to spend much time ploughing through the comments on PBC to work out that the most ferocious attacks on the Tories are not from Labour supporters but from Lib Dems. Those who work for the party in areas where the Conservatives are their main opponents are usually the most vocal – and this is reciprocated. So how are these Lib Dem supporters going to view the statements today by…

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Could it be six months before an outcome is clear?

Could it be six months before an outcome is clear?

Is it now impossible for either to win enough elected delegates? The Washington Post’s Paul Kane, in an interesting post highlighted by Taegan Goddard’s Politicalwire, suggests that it is now mathematically impossible for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to pick up enough elected (pledged) delegates and that there’s a distinct possibility that the decision could be left in the hands of the so called “super-delegates”. If so then there could be no effective Democratic candidate until the party’s convention…

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Methinks it’s time to be back backing Hillary again

Methinks it’s time to be back backing Hillary again

My system for making money from the Democratic race If you’ve got ten minutes then the above sequence from MSNBC is well worth viewing. It’s a good piece of analysis of what went wrong with the polls and the media hype in the build up to Super Tuesday and re-affirms the little betting system that I’ve been following. If the media narrative is with Hillary and her betting price moves into the odds-on zone then back Barack. If the media…

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Why we focus so much on the White House Race

Why we focus so much on the White House Race

This is where the political betting action is One or two people have emailed me in the past few days to ask why PBC is devoting so many threads and items to the White House race. The answer is in the graphic above based on screen clips I took this morning from the Betfair site. Quite simply the US is where the betting action is Even the London Mayoral contest, which will be completed nearly four months before the first…

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Technical Problems

Technical Problems

Hi all, We seem to be having a few technical issues, and comments do not seem to be posting. I’m working on the problem, and hopefully the site should be OK in an hour or so. Thanks, Robert *UPDATE 7:51, I’ve restarted the mysql server, and things seem to be working now. I am going to be upgrading the server handware and software either this week or next. If there will be any downtime, I’ll let people know.*

Are the big donors deserting the Hillary campaign?

Are the big donors deserting the Hillary campaign?

Why has she had to lend $5M of her own money? A developing post-Super Tuesday story this evening on US political sites has been a report that Hillary has had to dip into her own resources to keep her campaign on the the road. It’s been confirmed that in late January, only days before Super Tuesday, that the former first lady made what was described as a “loan” of $5m. It’s being suggested that more money will have to be…

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