Will Barack’s delegate margin increase tonight?

Will Barack’s delegate margin increase tonight?

Could there be a glimmer of hope in one of the results? The next stage of the seemingly never-ending quest to find the nominees for November’s presidential election moves to Washington DC tonight and to the two neighbouring states – Maryland and Virginia. The success of Mike Huckabee at the weekend has given life to the only serious contender fighting John McCain for the GOP crown. He won two contests on Saturday and there’s a big argument still going on…

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Will the super-delegates really be able to defy the voters?

Will the super-delegates really be able to defy the voters?

In reality are pledged delegates the only ones that matter? With neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama looking as though they will be able to secure a nomination-winning total of delegates in the remaining primaries an interesting debate is developing over the so called super-delegates. For if they chose to over-ride the preferences of ordinary voters as expressed through the primary and caucus process then, surely, they would be moving into very dangerous territory. I was particularly struck by this…

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Why Lynton Crosby will encourage me to bet on Boris?

Why Lynton Crosby will encourage me to bet on Boris?

Is Ken being ousted the best bet around at the moment? Cards on the table straight-away: quite simply I believe that the 1.84/1 that’s available on Boris Johnson to win the London Mayoralty is by far the best value political bet that’s currently available. Last October I pocketed £3,400 on Gordon’s general election U-turn and in the coming eleven weeks I’ll be investing at least half of that on Boris – when the prices are right. As Sean Fear observed…

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Punters desert Hillary as her troubles mount

Punters desert Hillary as her troubles mount

Confidence erodes after defeats and her campaign manager going The chart shows the changing views of the contenders for the Democratic crown over seven says which has seen “Super Tuesday“, “Significant Saturday” and Sunday’s caucuses in Maine. The betting prices are reflected as implied probabilities and, as can be seen, there’s been a further big drift in Hillary’s price with a corresponding tightening in Obama’s position. On the Betfair exchange the Obama odds are now 0.45/1 with Hillary out at…

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Maine looking good for Obama

Maine looking good for Obama

The above is the latest (2312 GMT) from Google maps showing how the Maine caucuses are going. The blue markers are for Obama the red ones for Hillary. In the betting the Iowa Electronic Markets – where political futures are bought and sold like stocks and shares – now has Hillary down to 32%. My view is that this is quite a significant result particularly as it borders on New Hampshire where Hillary had a spectacular victory just a month…

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…and now for Maine

…and now for Maine

This evening the results from the Maine caucuses will be coming out in the next stage of the 2008 White House race. In the betting Obama has eased a touch. Mike Smithson

Should Brown be worrying about the Clarke onslaughts?

Should Brown be worrying about the Clarke onslaughts?

Could the Prime Minister really “obliterate Labour?” While all the focus that has been on the US elections we have not really looked at the growing attacks on Gordon Brown from his long-standing foe within the Labour movement, Charles Clarke. In an interview with Petronella Wyatt in the Daily Mail this weekend the former Home Secretary and still-loyal Blairite issues one broadside after another against his party leader. Wyatt writes: …..Clarke now accuses Gordon Brown of not having ‘the confidence…

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“Significant Saturday” – the thread continues

“Significant Saturday” – the thread continues

Will PaddyPower pay out to Huckabee Kansas backers? With both the caucuses in Washington State and Nebraska now being predicted for Obama with overwhleming majorities we wait for the primary result in Lousiana where the exit polls have Obama ahead. After “Super Tuesday” these latest elections are being dubbed “Significant Saturday” On Sunday we have the Maine caucuses where 24 delegates are at stake. What will they call that? The big betting story has been from the Republican caucuses in…

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