Is this the most crucial speech of the campaign?

Is this the most crucial speech of the campaign?

Can the favourite balance the pressures and silence the critics? At 10.15 ET, 3.15pm in the UK, Barack Obama will rise to make what could be the speech that determines whether he gets the nomination or not. The title “Race, Politics, and Unifying our Country” says it all and all eyes will be on Philadelphia where the event is taking place. This is how the excellent Politico site is setting the scene: “..He is now facing a full-blown and fast-moving…

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Should Labour backers be getting their money on?

Should Labour backers be getting their money on?

The Tories get eight seats nearer a majority on the spreads Welcome again to the high-risk high-reward world of Commons seat spread betting where serious political gamblers trade the number of seats that the parties will get at the general election as though they were stocks and shares. When we last looked at this on March 7th the Tory spreads were 299-305 seats; Labour was at 269-275 and the Lib Dems at 47-50. so the Tories have moved up eight…

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Tories take 13% lead in new ICM poll

Tories take 13% lead in new ICM poll

The good news for the Tories – Part 3 After all the discussions over whether the weekend YouGov poll with the 16% lead was an outlier there’s more confirmation this evening that there has been a marked shift to Cameron’s party. The March ICM poll for the Guardian, just out gives the following shares with changes on the survey that appeared yesterday – CON 42% (+2): LAB 29% (-2): LD 21% (+1) The poll was carried out over the weekend…

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Boris takes a 12% lead with YouGov (updated)

Boris takes a 12% lead with YouGov (updated)

Do the findings mean that it’s now curtains for Ken? The odds on Boris Johnson becoming the next Mayor of London have tightened sharply following the publication of a new YouGov putting the Henley MP 12% ahead. The shares are with changes on the last survey a month ago JOHNSON 49% (+5): LIVINGSTONE 37% (-2) : PADDICK 12% (nc). On second preferences YouGov has picked up the same trend that MORI found last month with Boris getting 20% of them…

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Is Labour’s problem about communication and inspiration?

Is Labour’s problem about communication and inspiration?

Why the poll slump when the budget measures were popular? A day on from the dramatic polling news in the Sunday newspapers there’s a must read article in the Independent today by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, and one of the UK’s leading psephologists. In it he attempts to explain how the fact many of the measures in last week’s budget proved popular squares with Labour’s downward poll movement. One of the surveys, from YouGov had Labour…

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Obama wins the second battle of Iowa

Obama wins the second battle of Iowa

Ten more delegates go on his overall total ABC News in the US is leading on the above story about the second delegate battle for Iowa – scene of the very first caucus in the nomination process on January 3rd. According to ABC Obama “saw his delegate lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., grow by 10 on Saturday when Iowa Democrats took the second step in picking national convention delegates..Obama’s gains at Saturday’s county conventions came from successfully wooing Iowa…

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Should Ken be hitting the panic button?

Should Ken be hitting the panic button?

The 16% Tory lead poll – the detail Reproduced above is an extract from the detailed data from today’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times showing the Tories with their best figures for a quarter of a century. The paper is leading on the survey this morning. By any account the figures are sensational and, if repeated at a general election, would see David Cameron returned with a three figure majority. But that could be more than two years away…

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YouGov puts the Tories at 16% ahead…

YouGov puts the Tories at 16% ahead…

Voters give a big “thumbs down” in the first post-budget polls Reports are coming in of two new polls showing big moves to the Tories. YouGov has the party on 43% a massive 16% ahead of Labour. The shares with comparisons on the last YouGov survey at the end of February are: CON 43% (+3): LAB 27% (-6): LD 16% (nc) ICM for tomorrow’s News of the World has Cameron’s party with a lead of 9% – up from just…

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