The week that punters turned to Boris

The week that punters turned to Boris

But should you be making a 75/1 insurance bet on Paddick? The chart, using betting prices expressed as implied probabilities, shows the dramatic changes there have been in the London Mayoral race betting over the past week. Last Saturday the Labour incumbent, Ken Livingstone, was the marginal odds-on favourite with his Tory challenger, Boris Johnson, not far behind. Then the came the national general election polls showing a huge move to the Tories in the aftermath of the budget. This…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

A preview of 2008’s Local Elections (Part I) Most of the interest on May 1st will focus on the London Mayoralty. Elsewhere, however, there are important local elections taking place. All 36 Metropolitan Boroughs will see one third of their councillors elected. The 22 Welsh Unitary authorities will see all of their councillors come up for election. 4 District councils will have all-out elections, 5 will elect half their councillors, and 71 will elect one third. There are also elections…

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The Democratic race – where are we?

The Democratic race – where are we?

As the chart, showing the Clinton-Obama fight in terms of the implied probabilities of odds on UK betting markets, illustrates the events of the past week have had an impact but not that much. A number of visitors have expressed surprise at my continuing view that Hillary is still in with a shout even though the pledged delegate totals are against her. Perhaps the best articulation of my nagging doubts about Obama’s chances comes from the US blogger who, for…

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Who’s the best bet: Boris or Obama?

Who’s the best bet: Boris or Obama?

The current odds-in favourites in the two most active betting markets are Obama for the Democratic nomination and Boris for the London mayoralty. The former is at 0.4/1 and the latter at 0.68/1. I think that the prices are the wrong way round and that Boris has a substantially better chance of making it than Obama does. Of course with Boris everything depends on how Londoners vote on May 1st while with Obama the majority of state battles have taken…

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Are the White House documents Hillary’s Pastor Wright?

Are the White House documents Hillary’s Pastor Wright?

How will the release of her documents change the race? After a very uncomfortable few days for Barack Obama the battle for the Democratic nomination has now moved on with the publication of thousands of documents from her White House years as first Lady from 1993 to 2001. These have been released under the freedom of information legislation and will be used to test her claims to “experience” and “being ready on Day One”. The ABC news report featured above,…

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Poll: Paddick supporters prefer Boris to Ken

Poll: Paddick supporters prefer Boris to Ken

Why’s Boris winning the battle for LD second preferences? The above extract is from the detailed data on the YouGov website of this week’s London Mayoral poll showing Boris 12% ahead. What could be even more significant is the way the Brian Paddick second preferences are splitting:- Boris is winning 41% of them to Ken’s 34%. This is very much at odds with the way many on PBC have been seeing it and the assumption has been that Ken would…

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Can Labour go on resisting individual registration?

Can Labour go on resisting individual registration?

Which is worse – electoral fraud or low turnouts? Communities minister, Hazel Blears, was faced with big dilemma when she appeared on BBC2’s Daily Politics this morning. How could the government go on resisting the individual voter registration in view of this week’s report from the Electoral Commission saying that “safeguards introduced to combat electoral fraud “are easily bypassed” because of weaknesses in the system? The head of standards, Sir Christopher Kelly, said that the current arrangement of one registration…

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Make money guessing what Dave’s first subject will be?

Make money guessing what Dave’s first subject will be?

Launching the new market – betting on Prime Minister’s Questions The bookmakers, Ladbrokes has launched what could develop into a fascinating weekly betting market – What will be the topic of David Cameron’s first question at PMQs? Normally the most watched and most speculated about moment in the commons each week happens just after midday on Wednesdays when the opposition leader gets to his feet and starts the first of the six questions he is allowed to put to the…

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