The candidate responds to the minister who married him and Michelle There’s been a move to Hillary and away from Obama on the Democratic nomination markets in reaction to the overnight story from the US about his pastor. This looks like it could run and the MSNBC video above is well worth watching. In all these things it usually boils down not to the issue itself but how the candidate deals with it. But there clearly is a danger, highlighted…
The Irish bookie relents and the winners get paid out On Tuesday Peter the Punter (Peter Smith) reported on a battle that he had had with the Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower, over a bet on Mike Huckabee in the GOP caucus in Kansas on February 9th when Mitt Romney was priced as the hot favourite to take the state. It will be recalled that the first indication here of a possible upset came at 8.11pm (GMT) with Jfsl posting – “Fox…
Has Labour Lost Its Core Working Class Supporters? It has become fashionable to argue that Labour has alienated its core working class supporters, in favour of middle income supporters in marginal constituencies. A good example of this was written by Seamus Milne in yesterday’s Guardian , and plenty of other left-wing commentators, such as Polly Toynbee, Roy Hattersley, and Dagenham MP, John Cruddas, make the same point. Usually, the argument is that Labour’s core supporters have lost out economically, although…
Introducing O’Bama’s T-shirt for St. Patrick’s Day Latest US betting is here Mike Smithson
Should appealing to this group be Priority Number One? Earlier in the year it was estimated that the average age of those who would probably vote at the next general election was 58 and commentators like Jackie Ashley in the Guardian were suggesting that Labour ought to do much more with the older age groups which are now being joined by the baby boomers. And there are three key factors about this group: People are living longer so the proportion…
Results of a “quickie” Populus poll of 586 people on yesterday’s budget are just out on the Times website and shows broad public backing for the measures on drinking and motoring. The survey did not include a voting intention question and was almost certainly not past vote weighted. This is likely to have produced a smallish but significant nevertheless pro-Labour sample. This factor is important when judging findings like the one that “most voters do not think the Budget would…
The above went out on MSNBC last night and might have an impact. Democratic nomination betting is here.
Will his “So what” to higher taxes heckle come to haunt him? The most electorally significant moment of the 2008 budget might come to be seen as a heckle by the School Secretary and the man who is said to be Brown’s chosen successor, Ed Balls, when the leader of the opposition was making his formal response. It came after Cameron had told the house that Britain had the highest tax burden in its history when Balls blurted out in…