Because I’m almost a local – I live about a mile and a half from the constituency – I’m getting a fair number of questions asking for my thoughts on the possible by-election in Mid-Beds. This is, of course, the seat where Nadine Dorries has been MP since GE2010 and the person who announced on June 9th that she was quitting as an MP with “immediate effect”. That was in expectation that she was being given a peerage in Johnson’s…
This was bound to happen given the appalling national polling collapse that Sunak’s Tories have seen – the betting money is going on three Tory by-election losses on Thursday. The one thing that’s limiting betting activity is that the odds on the Tories losing Somerton are so so tight that risking £100 to win £2 is not an attractive proposition. These, we should all remind ourselves, will be the first by-election defences by the Tories since Sunak became leader. Mike…
How long before action on the persecution of innocent sub-postmasters? It is not easy for a Cabinet Minister to make a good impression or even achieve very much. Staying out of trouble is a high bar these days. Maybe much worthwhile work is being done behind the scenes without much, if any, publicity. Still, ambitious politicians need to make the best of whatever opportunities present themselves. So let’s look at one of those vying to be Tory party leader and…
This YouGov polling sets out very clearly what voters think will change if Starmer does indeed become PM in the next 18 months. There are high hopes that things will get better in a number of key areas but I just wonder whether too much will be expected too quickly. I recall similar hopes before GE1997 and this inevitably causes problems. Then, of course, Blair was leader and I would suggest that Starmer is going to struggle. The last LAB…
At what stage could Sunak be in trouble? Thursday is a big day for the PM whose party is facing three very difficult defences in Westminster by-elections. The betting odds for what they are worth won’t give any encouragement to Number 10. In Selby LAB is rated by punters as having an 87% chance; in Uxbridge an 87% chance while the betting markets are currently rating the LDs as having an 97% chance in Somerton and Frome. I have not…
Something for those who are betting and expecting a (large) Labour majority to consider. TSE
Brexit isn’t working Brexit isn’t going very well in the eyes of the public, this finding from Ipsos isn’t atypical from what other pollsters find. The reality is neither major GB wide parties are where the public currently are. I acknowledge that thinking Brexit is going negatively that there’s no automaticity that people will want to Rejoin. The reality is the Brexit status quo is unsustainable and eventually one or both parties will give the people what they want, that’s…
My last article, arguing Labour are rightly favourite in Selby & Ainsty, provoked a very fair rebuttal from some commenters. The Tories may be vulnerable, but Labour are hardly a party with a history of by-election upsets. That’s what the Lib Dems are for. The Lib Dems have enjoyed three by-election victories since the last election, winning not just Remain-leaning Chesham & Amersham but also Leave seats in North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton. In these latter two seats they…