Is it time to start betting on a Conservative majority? Con 43 (+6), Lab 32 (nc), Lib Dem 18 (-3) A poll by ICM in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph gives the Conservatives an 11-point lead, up six since the previous poll in January. The Telegraph notes that such a result could give a 40-seat majority for Cameron under FPTP, but under a putative AV-style system this would be reduced to 325 MPs. On the issue of economic competence, Brown/Darling and Cameron/Osborne…
..and two-thirds want an early referendum on independence? A YouGov poll carried out during the week north of the border has found a big boost for the SNP and suggests a possible problem for Labour in retaining seats in the country at the next general election. Like most Scottish polls it is in three parts:- Westminster General Election with changes on May 2005. SNP 31% (+13): Lab 35% (-5): Con: 17% (+1): Lib: 12% (-11): Oth: 4% Scottish Parliament constituency…
Morus looks ahead to the Hoosier state as the Democrat endgame approaches Whilst all eyes are on Pennsylvania on the 22nd April, there are a number of primaries being held within a couple of weeks of that contest which could still yet have an impact on Clinton’s pending decision to fight or concede. Although Obama has recently drawn very close in the PA polls, it would be a massive surprise for Clinton to lose this primary, although the odds suggest…
The Grand National 2008 One popular misconception about this race is that it’s a lottery which serious punters would swerve. In fact, until about ten years ago it was one of the easiest races in which to find value bets and was therefore eagerly anticipated by the greedy hordes of professional backers. This all changed when Senior Handicapper, Phil Smith (no relation), started taking a radical view of the weights allocated to each horse. In essence, he started to show…
Where London Will be Won and Lost One of the striking features of the London Mayoral election of 2004 was just how strongly Ken Livingstone performed in prosperous parts of the Capital, many of which are strongly Conservative in local elections. Boroughs like Croydon, (where the Conservatives had a 9% lead over Labour in the local elections of 2002), Harrow (where they had a 7% lead), Redbridge and Richmond (both gained by the Conservatives in 2002) and most surprising of…
Would he have had a bigger lead with a different turnout approach? With the publication of two polls showing very different pictures of the UK’s biggest political betting event for years there’s going to be even more scrutiny of how the figures are produced. There are matters in relation to the YouGov approach that I have written to Peter Kellner about that I hope to discuss in the next few days In the meantime we now have the detailed data…
Will this change many votes? The latest twist in the contest for London Mayor are the revelations that Ken Livingstone has had five children by three different women. However, Ken has dismissed claims that the issue will affect his campaign. Responding to a question that some people might be shocked by the revelation, he said: “Clearly, I don’t think anybody in this city is shocked about what consenting adults do.” So will this alter many people’s choices when they cast…
Con 40 (+1), Lab 35 (-2) Lib Dem 18 (+2) The March Political Monitor out today from Ipsos MORI shows the Conservatives with a 5 point lead in voting intention, ahead of Labour on 35 and the Lib Dems on 18. The Tory lead is thus up three when compared to the February poll. Elsewhere in the poll, net personal ratings were -39 for the government, -31 for Brown, +4 for Cameron, and -7 for Clegg. The quota sample was…