The by election betting – the morning after

The by election betting – the morning after

C&N punters mount their own U-turn Yesterday evening, less than two hours after Darling’s commons statement on the tax U-turn I published a chart here under the headline “Darling gives Labour a boost in the Crewe betting“. This has been picked up in the media and on a number of other sites and presented as an instant verdict on what Brown and Darling did yesterday. Well after consideration the markets have returned to almost exactly where they were 24 hours…

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So the Democratic race goes on

So the Democratic race goes on

But do these final primaries matter at all? After her expected huge victory in the predominantly white working class state of West Virginia Hillary Clinton was in upbeat mood overnight and made it clear that she is still striving to become the next president. This is her biggest victory so far yet the mood of the commentators was that it was irrelevant. Only 28 delegates were at stake, the outcome had been widely predicted, and Obama’s quiet campaign amongst the…

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Can West Virginia do anything to the Dem race?

Can West Virginia do anything to the Dem race?

..Or have we passed the game-changing moment? Another Tuesday evening and another primary in the race for the Democratic nomination. This time it’s in West Virginia which decides the fate of 28 delegates. The state’s demographics look good for former First Lady and it’s possible that she could finish up in the 60s with Obama down in the 20s. But will it matter? For it’s beginning to look as though last Tuesday’s North Carolina and Indiana primaries finally closed the…

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Darling gives Labour a boost in the Crewe betting

Darling gives Labour a boost in the Crewe betting

Could the revised tax plan stem the Tory surge? The chart shows the changes in the Labour betting price for Crewe and Nantwich, expressed as an implied probability, during a day which has seen the government trying to get out of the hole it has dug itself into over the 10% tax rate. Clearly Brown and his team were thinking of next week’s election when they decided to make the statement to try to shoot this particular fox. The only…

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How a Tory 12% Crewe lead became 4%

How a Tory 12% Crewe lead became 4%

Dealing with the ex-Labour supporters who said they “didn’t know” At last! We now have the full data from the ICM Crewe and Nantwich by-election poll and I have reproduced the most interesting feature above – how the original numbers produced a 12% lead with the Tories on 47% and what happened when they went through the “spiral of silence adjuster”. For what has happened here is that ICM has followed its standard practice and has allocated half of the…

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Don’t write off Labour’s “Toff” attacks?

Don’t write off Labour’s “Toff” attacks?

crewe.tv This could be a good strategy to get the vote out? Labour’s core strategy in Crewe and Nantwich to portray their main opponent as a “Tory Toff” has attracted a lot of criticism and has even proved a bit too rich for some contributors to LabourHome. The sight, as above, of Labour activists seeking to follow the Tory candidate dressed up as “Toffs” and the emphasis on his background in campaign leaflets has been the principle theme of the…

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Is the Henley by election being planned for June?

Is the Henley by election being planned for June?

Is Boris’s “goodbye” a sign that the writ is about to be issued? The above has just gone on the Henley Standard website and suggests that the Tories are going to waste no time in setting the processes in train for an early by election to replace Boris Johnson. The piece is a “goodbye Henley letter” from the new Mayor which seems to suggest that the by election campaign has already started. There had been some speculation that he might…

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Could Gord just step down voluntarily?

Could Gord just step down voluntarily?

Is this the most likely “end-game” scenario? Whenever the question of the manner of Gordon’s eventual departure is discussed three different possibilities are raised: that he’ll go after leading Labour to an inglorious defeat at the hands of David Cameron; that he’ll be ousted in a bloody coup; or that he will, like other Prime Ministers before him, stand down on health grounds. Only a few have suggested that he might come to recognise that his leadership is undermining his…

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