Has the Sun switched from MORI following the Mayoral outcome? A key thing that polling does, apart from to give some idea about the outcome of a future general election, is to help create the environment in which the political process operates. As we have seen so often the pressure on party leaders can be driven by poor polling numbers. For there’s little doubt that shocking polls for Labour, like the one in this morning’s Sun, can affect the whole…
Appalling news for Labour from the pollster that got Boris-Ken right In what is perhaps the most sensational opinion poll for decades the pollster that got the London Mayoral election spot on, YouGov is tonight reporting a 26% lead for the Conservatives. The shares are CON 49%: LAB 23%: LD 17% The last survey from the firm had an 18% Tory lead so this is a very big shift upwards. Clearly Gordon Brown and Labour have had an appalling week…
The main political story on ABC News this afternoon is that “..intermediaries” have resumed discussing the possibility of an Obama-Clinton “dream team” ticket…”. A former top Bill Clinton aide and now ABC News’ chief Washington correspondent, George Stephanopolous, said: “I think it’s very much a possibility and there are others around Sen. Clinton, other top Democrats who think the strongest ticket would be a joint ticket..There are intermediaries discussing this very scenario” He went on:”..Right now Sen. Obama is probably…
Is this the woman who could turn Labour’s fortunes around? I don’t claim to understand the intricacies of Labour party internal politics but after pondering over the past few days I have come up with a couple of names of people I believe could turn round voters views of the party and make the next general election less of the disaster than it looks at the moment. What’s needed is a different style and a different tone and a leader…
Could clearing her massive campaign debts be part of a deal? In the aftermath of the Tuesday’s primaries speculation has started on how the Obama-Clinton contest might end and whether we could see a negotiated deal between the two of them. An experienced political operator who has been involved in such an arrangement before, Dan Conley, has a must read piece in Salon in which he suggests three things that Hillary could demand to pull out. Firstly there’s cash. The…
Is a Tory victory a near certainty? Ever since the betting markets opened on the Crewe and Nantwich by election all the money has been going one way. Ladbrokes opened with a 4/5 Tory price which then went to 4/7 and is now at 1/2. Betfair has seen a big rush to get on the Tories and, as I write, the best you can get is 0.34/1. Another bookmaker has 4/9. But is punter confidence in the Tories justified –…
Is it time to start using our White House race logo? With Obama’s decisive victory in North Carolina and Hillary’s victory in Indiana being by a fraction it’s starting to look as though the marathon fight for the Democratic nomination is nearing its end. As Obama spinners were saying overnight – they are now just 200 delegates from clinching it. Add onto that the reports that she has had to make a further big loan to her campaign and you…
        Will this be over before the Convention in Denver? If the Superdelegates are reluctant to  finish this race before the final states, Montana and South Dakota, have their say on June 3rd, then it seems likely that Clinton has almost another month in this race. She will almost certainly lose on pledged delegates and is unlikely to win the popular vote either, but is refusing to step aside. Many have speculated that the Superdelegates are disinclined to side with one party…